Tropical Storm Dolly's brief existence as a named system with peak winds near 40 mph ended quickly as it degenerated into an open tropical wave amid unfavorable conditions including increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast forward motion exceeding 20 mph, and dry air aloft. National Hurricane Center analyses confirm the loss of a closed surface circulation by late August 28, with all model guidance showing continued weakening and dissipation rather than reorganization over the central Atlantic or Caribbean. This environmental setup, combined with the system's rapid westward track toward the Leeward Islands, has produced the near-certain trader consensus against hurricane strength (Saffir-Simpson scale threshold of 74 mph sustained winds). Limited redevelopment potential remains only after the remnants interact with the Florida peninsula or Gulf waters later this week, though current NHC outlooks assign just a 10% chance over seven days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
Will Tropical Storm Dolly strengthen to a hurricane?
<1% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
<1% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly's brief existence as a named system with peak winds near 40 mph ended quickly as it degenerated into an open tropical wave amid unfavorable conditions including increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast forward motion exceeding 20 mph, and dry air aloft. National Hurricane Center analyses confirm the loss of a closed surface circulation by late August 28, with all model guidance showing continued weakening and dissipation rather than reorganization over the central Atlantic or Caribbean. This environmental setup, combined with the system's rapid westward track toward the Leeward Islands, has produced the near-certain trader consensus against hurricane strength (Saffir-Simpson scale threshold of 74 mph sustained winds). Limited redevelopment potential remains only after the remnants interact with the Florida peninsula or Gulf waters later this week, though current NHC outlooks assign just a 10% chance over seven days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Volume
$2,375End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Tropical Storm Dolly's brief existence as a named system with peak winds near 40 mph ended quickly as it degenerated into an open tropical wave amid unfavorable conditions including increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast forward motion exceeding 20 mph, and dry air aloft. National Hurricane Center analyses confirm the loss of a closed surface circulation by late August 28, with all model guidance showing continued weakening and dissipation rather than reorganization over the central Atlantic or Caribbean. This environmental setup, combined with the system's rapid westward track toward the Leeward Islands, has produced the near-certain trader consensus against hurricane strength (Saffir-Simpson scale threshold of 74 mph sustained winds). Limited redevelopment potential remains only after the remnants interact with the Florida peninsula or Gulf waters later this week, though current NHC outlooks assign just a 10% chance over seven days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$2,375End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Dolly's brief existence as a named system with peak winds near 40 mph ended quickly as it degenerated into an open tropical wave amid unfavorable conditions including increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast forward motion exceeding 20 mph, and dry air aloft. National Hurricane Center analyses confirm the loss of a closed surface circulation by late August 28, with all model guidance showing continued weakening and dissipation rather than reorganization over the central Atlantic or Caribbean. This environmental setup, combined with the system's rapid westward track toward the Leeward Islands, has produced the near-certain trader consensus against hurricane strength (Saffir-Simpson scale threshold of 74 mph sustained winds). Limited redevelopment potential remains only after the remnants interact with the Florida peninsula or Gulf waters later this week, though current NHC outlooks assign just a 10% chance over seven days.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions