The closely contested odds between Other at 52% and Pause–Pause–Pause at 48.5% highlight trader uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s June-through-September 2026 policy path, as incoming inflation and labor data have produced mixed signals without a clear directional catalyst. Recent CPI prints and unemployment figures have kept market-implied odds for any rate cut in the period subdued, while Treasury yields and forward-looking Fed funds futures reflect ongoing debate between persistent price pressures and moderating growth. Key upcoming releases, including the next nonfarm payrolls report and September FOMC communications, are positioned to shift consensus by clarifying whether inflation is reaccelerating or the labor market is cooling enough to support easing. This setup leaves room for last-minute data surprises to tip the balance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Other 52%
Pause–Pause–Pause 49%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$836,206 Vol.
$836,206 Vol.
15 sept. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
49%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
52%
Other 52%
Pause–Pause–Pause 49%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$836,206 Vol.
$836,206 Vol.
15 sept. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$321,148 Vol.
49%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$99,971 Vol.
1%
Other
$359,211 Vol.
52%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe closely contested odds between Other at 52% and Pause–Pause–Pause at 48.5% highlight trader uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s June-through-September 2026 policy path, as incoming inflation and labor data have produced mixed signals without a clear directional catalyst. Recent CPI prints and unemployment figures have kept market-implied odds for any rate cut in the period subdued, while Treasury yields and forward-looking Fed funds futures reflect ongoing debate between persistent price pressures and moderating growth. Key upcoming releases, including the next nonfarm payrolls report and September FOMC communications, are positioned to shift consensus by clarifying whether inflation is reaccelerating or the labor market is cooling enough to support easing. This setup leaves room for last-minute data surprises to tip the balance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$836,206Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe closely contested odds between Other at 52% and Pause–Pause–Pause at 48.5% highlight trader uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s June-through-September 2026 policy path, as incoming inflation and labor data have produced mixed signals without a clear directional catalyst. Recent CPI prints and unemployment figures have kept market-implied odds for any rate cut in the period subdued, while Treasury yields and forward-looking Fed funds futures reflect ongoing debate between persistent price pressures and moderating growth. Key upcoming releases, including the next nonfarm payrolls report and September FOMC communications, are positioned to shift consensus by clarifying whether inflation is reaccelerating or the labor market is cooling enough to support easing. This setup leaves room for last-minute data surprises to tip the balance.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$836,206Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The closely contested odds between Other at 52% and Pause–Pause–Pause at 48.5% highlight trader uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s June-through-September 2026 policy path, as incoming inflation and labor data have produced mixed signals without a clear directional catalyst. Recent CPI prints and unemployment figures have kept market-implied odds for any rate cut in the period subdued, while Treasury yields and forward-looking Fed funds futures reflect ongoing debate between persistent price pressures and moderating growth. Key upcoming releases, including the next nonfarm payrolls report and September FOMC communications, are positioned to shift consensus by clarifying whether inflation is reaccelerating or the labor market is cooling enough to support easing. This setup leaves room for last-minute data surprises to tip the balance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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