Strong August 2026 payrolls of 162,000 jobs and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside elevated PCE inflation near 3.3–3.6% year-over-year, have tilted trader sentiment toward possible Fed tightening at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and beyond. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the central bank’s hawkish dot plot and reduced forward guidance amplify focus on incoming data. Pause–Pause–Pause remains the plurality outcome at 32.5% because sustained labor-market resilience or reaccelerating price pressures could justify one or more 25-basis-point hikes, while softer CPI prints or weakening job growth could lock in holds through December. Markets price roughly 58% odds of a September move, underscoring how near-term economic releases will determine the path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPause–Pause–Pause 33%
Augmenter–Pause–Pause 19%
Hausse–Hausse–Pause 14%
Hausse–Pause–Hausse 10%
$13,927 Vol.
$13,927 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
Hausse–Pause–Hausse
10%
Augmenter–Pause–Pause
19%
Relèvement–Relèvement–Relèvement
6%
Hausse–Hausse–Pause
14%
Pause–Pause–Hausse
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause
33%
Pause–Hausse–Hausse
4%
Pause–Hausse–Pause
8%
Autre
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 33%
Augmenter–Pause–Pause 19%
Hausse–Hausse–Pause 14%
Hausse–Pause–Hausse 10%
$13,927 Vol.
$13,927 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
Hausse–Pause–Hausse
$314 Vol.
10%
Augmenter–Pause–Pause
$507 Vol.
19%
Relèvement–Relèvement–Relèvement
$216 Vol.
6%
Hausse–Hausse–Pause
$429 Vol.
14%
Pause–Pause–Hausse
$557 Vol.
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$11,072 Vol.
33%
Pause–Hausse–Hausse
$242 Vol.
4%
Pause–Hausse–Pause
$341 Vol.
8%
Autre
$249 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong August 2026 payrolls of 162,000 jobs and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside elevated PCE inflation near 3.3–3.6% year-over-year, have tilted trader sentiment toward possible Fed tightening at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and beyond. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the central bank’s hawkish dot plot and reduced forward guidance amplify focus on incoming data. Pause–Pause–Pause remains the plurality outcome at 32.5% because sustained labor-market resilience or reaccelerating price pressures could justify one or more 25-basis-point hikes, while softer CPI prints or weakening job growth could lock in holds through December. Markets price roughly 58% odds of a September move, underscoring how near-term economic releases will determine the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$13,927Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong August 2026 payrolls of 162,000 jobs and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside elevated PCE inflation near 3.3–3.6% year-over-year, have tilted trader sentiment toward possible Fed tightening at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and beyond. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the central bank’s hawkish dot plot and reduced forward guidance amplify focus on incoming data. Pause–Pause–Pause remains the plurality outcome at 32.5% because sustained labor-market resilience or reaccelerating price pressures could justify one or more 25-basis-point hikes, while softer CPI prints or weakening job growth could lock in holds through December. Markets price roughly 58% odds of a September move, underscoring how near-term economic releases will determine the path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$13,927Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Strong August 2026 payrolls of 162,000 jobs and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate, alongside elevated PCE inflation near 3.3–3.6% year-over-year, have tilted trader sentiment toward possible Fed tightening at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting and beyond. Under new Chair Kevin Warsh, the central bank’s hawkish dot plot and reduced forward guidance amplify focus on incoming data. Pause–Pause–Pause remains the plurality outcome at 32.5% because sustained labor-market resilience or reaccelerating price pressures could justify one or more 25-basis-point hikes, while softer CPI prints or weakening job growth could lock in holds through December. Markets price roughly 58% odds of a September move, underscoring how near-term economic releases will determine the path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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