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icon for NM-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

NM-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre

icon for NM-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
Politique·Élections Du 4 Novembre

NM-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre

Polymarket

$33,424 Vol.

Polymarket

$33,424 Vol.

Gabe Vasquez (D)

$14,234 Vol.

89%

Greg Cunningham (R)

$19,191 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez holds a commanding position in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District race due to his established incumbency, superior fundraising of roughly $3.78 million compared to Republican Greg Cunningham's $1.51 million as of June 2026, and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Cunningham secured the GOP nomination in the June primary and benefits from the district's support for President Trump in 2024, along with recent endorsements and a visit from House Speaker Mike Johnson. A late August SurveyUSA poll showed Vasquez leading 46% to 43% with 11% undecided, underscoring a competitive environment where public safety and voter turnout among key groups like Latinos and women could influence the November 3 outcome. Trader consensus appears to weigh Vasquez's structural edges more heavily than polling volatility at this stage.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,424
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Gabe Vasquez holds a commanding position in New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District race due to his established incumbency, superior fundraising of roughly $3.78 million compared to Republican Greg Cunningham's $1.51 million as of June 2026, and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles. Cunningham secured the GOP nomination in the June primary and benefits from the district's support for President Trump in 2024, along with recent endorsements and a visit from House Speaker Mike Johnson. A late August SurveyUSA poll showed Vasquez leading 46% to 43% with 11% undecided, underscoring a competitive environment where public safety and voter turnout among key groups like Latinos and women could influence the November 3 outcome. Trader consensus appears to weigh Vasquez's structural edges more heavily than polling volatility at this stage.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,424
Date de fin
4 nov. 2026
Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET

Résolveur

0x2F5e3684c...

Connexes

icon for Le Parti républicain remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre IA-02 ?

Le Parti républicain remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre IA-02 ?

52%
Oui
icon for Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour le district CO-02 ?

Le Parti démocrate remportera-t-il le siège de la Chambre pour le district CO-02 ?

95%
Oui
icon for Le Parti démocrate gagnera-t-il le siège de la Chambre MN-02 ?

Le Parti démocrate gagnera-t-il le siège de la Chambre MN-02 ?

93%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« NM-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Gabe Vasquez (D) » à 89%, suivi de « Greg Cunningham (R) » à 12%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 89¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 89% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « NM-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » a généré $33.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 16, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « NM-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « NM-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » est « Gabe Vasquez (D) » à 89%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 89% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Greg Cunningham (R) » à 12%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « NM-02 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.