Nigel Farage’s August 2026 Clacton by-election victory, which he triggered via resignation amid scrutiny over an undeclared £5 million donation, has left the parliamentary standards investigation paused during the contest but now resumed. A breach finding could lead to suspension and a recall petition under Commons rules, potentially forcing another vote before year-end. However, such processes typically involve extended inquiries, committee stages, and procedural delays, with no confirmed timeline or imminent sanctions reported as of mid-September. Traders assign 89% probability to no further by-election in 2026, reflecting the low likelihood of rapid resolution, the absence of new triggering events, and historical precedent for standards cases extending beyond single calendar years.