Argentina’s 2026 year-end inflation trajectory remains closely contested in prediction markets, with the 30.0–34.9% and 25.0–29.9% bands trading near parity at 51.3% and 45.5% implied probabilities. August 2026 CPI printed 1.7% month-on-month—the lowest in 14 months—bringing the year-over-year rate to 33.5% and year-to-date accumulation to 21.3%. Government projections were revised upward to 29% in the 2027 budget submission, aligning closely with REM analyst consensus near 30%, while the IMF maintains a 25% baseline. Persistent fiscal surpluses, exchange-rate stability, and decelerating core measures support further moderation, yet relative-price adjustments, energy-price volatility, and residual inertia could push the outcome into the higher bin. Remaining monthly prints through December represent the key swing factor for final resolution.