Recent July CPI data at 0.5% year-over-year, driven by softer food prices, lower energy contributions, and subdued core readings near 0.9%, has anchored expectations for August amid ongoing weak domestic demand. Persistent softness in retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and services activity continues to limit broad price momentum, while manufacturing PMI remains in contraction and producer prices show uneven recovery. Traders weigh these disinflationary forces against targeted fiscal measures, including accelerated bond issuance and consumption-support policies announced for the second half, plus potential seasonal or category-specific rebounds in areas like healthcare or consumer goods. The narrow gap between the leading 0.5%-0.6% and 0.7%-0.8% bands reflects uncertainty over whether policy support or base effects can offset structural demand weakness before the September release.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato0.5% - 0.6% 38%
0.7% - 0.8% 36%
0.9%+ 21.6%
0.3% - 0.4% 8.4%
$19,709 Vol.
$19,709 Vol.
≤0.2%
3%
0.3% - 0.4%
8%
0.5% - 0.6%
38%
0.7% - 0.8%
36%
0.9%+
22%
0.5% - 0.6% 38%
0.7% - 0.8% 36%
0.9%+ 21.6%
0.3% - 0.4% 8.4%
$19,709 Vol.
$19,709 Vol.
≤0.2%
3%
0.3% - 0.4%
8%
0.5% - 0.6%
38%
0.7% - 0.8%
36%
0.9%+
22%
This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Mercato aperto: Aug 10, 2026, 4:28 PM ET
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent July CPI data at 0.5% year-over-year, driven by softer food prices, lower energy contributions, and subdued core readings near 0.9%, has anchored expectations for August amid ongoing weak domestic demand. Persistent softness in retail sales, fixed-asset investment, and services activity continues to limit broad price momentum, while manufacturing PMI remains in contraction and producer prices show uneven recovery. Traders weigh these disinflationary forces against targeted fiscal measures, including accelerated bond issuance and consumption-support policies announced for the second half, plus potential seasonal or category-specific rebounds in areas like healthcare or consumer goods. The narrow gap between the leading 0.5%-0.6% and 0.7%-0.8% bands reflects uncertainty over whether policy support or base effects can offset structural demand weakness before the September release.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato


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