The market-implied odds reflect overwhelming trader consensus on Claude Opus 5 Max as the leading AI model, driven by its confirmed top performance on recent capability benchmarks and demonstrated advancements in reasoning, multimodal processing, and safety alignment relative to prior Claude iterations. This positioning aligns with Anthropic's iterative release cadence and competitive edge in enterprise-grade large language models. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a surprise high-impact release or benchmark surge from competitors like OpenAI or Google before resolution, updated evaluation criteria emphasizing new metrics, or late-reported issues affecting perceived reliability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 31 agosto?
Il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale del 31 agosto?
claude-opus-5-max 100.0%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-4-6-high <1%
Altro <1%
$71,285 Vol.
$71,285 Vol.
31 ago 2026
claude-opus-5-max
Sì
claude-opus-5-high
No
claude-opus-4-6-high
No
Altro
No
claude-opus-5-max 100.0%
claude-opus-5-high <1%
claude-opus-4-6-high <1%
Altro <1%
$71,285 Vol.
$71,285 Vol.
31 ago 2026
claude-opus-5-max
$23,762 Vol.
Sì
claude-opus-5-high
$25,335 Vol.
No
claude-opus-4-6-high
$11,194 Vol.
No
Altro
$10,995 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The market-implied odds reflect overwhelming trader consensus on Claude Opus 5 Max as the leading AI model, driven by its confirmed top performance on recent capability benchmarks and demonstrated advancements in reasoning, multimodal processing, and safety alignment relative to prior Claude iterations. This positioning aligns with Anthropic's iterative release cadence and competitive edge in enterprise-grade large language models. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a surprise high-impact release or benchmark surge from competitors like OpenAI or Google before resolution, updated evaluation criteria emphasizing new metrics, or late-reported issues affecting perceived reliability.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercato aperto: Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ET
Volume
$71,285Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The market-implied odds reflect overwhelming trader consensus on Claude Opus 5 Max as the leading AI model, driven by its confirmed top performance on recent capability benchmarks and demonstrated advancements in reasoning, multimodal processing, and safety alignment relative to prior Claude iterations. This positioning aligns with Anthropic's iterative release cadence and competitive edge in enterprise-grade large language models. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a surprise high-impact release or benchmark surge from competitors like OpenAI or Google before resolution, updated evaluation criteria emphasizing new metrics, or late-reported issues affecting perceived reliability.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$71,285Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:27 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
The market-implied odds reflect overwhelming trader consensus on Claude Opus 5 Max as the leading AI model, driven by its confirmed top performance on recent capability benchmarks and demonstrated advancements in reasoning, multimodal processing, and safety alignment relative to prior Claude iterations. This positioning aligns with Anthropic's iterative release cadence and competitive edge in enterprise-grade large language models. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a surprise high-impact release or benchmark surge from competitors like OpenAI or Google before resolution, updated evaluation criteria emphasizing new metrics, or late-reported issues affecting perceived reliability.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Claude-fable-5.1-max sarà il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale il 21 settembre 2026?
74%
Sì
Claude-fable-5.1-max sarà il miglior modello di intelligenza artificiale il 14 settembre 2026?
88%
Sì
Il prossimo modello Claude Opus debutterà con un punteggio di almeno 1500 entro il 31 dicembre 2026?
64%
Sì
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