Derek Tran secured the Democratic nomination for California’s 45th congressional district with a commanding 53.8% in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing outright against Republican Chuong Vo. As the incumbent who flipped the seat by a narrow margin in 2024, Tran benefits from substantial fundraising dominance, established name recognition among the district’s sizable Asian-American electorate, and favorable post-redistricting lines that have shifted the seat toward Democratic-leaning performance in recent statewide contests. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November general election as likely or lean Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s structural advantages in a district where Republicans have struggled to consolidate support behind a single challenger. A late national political shift, unusually high Republican turnout, or unforeseen campaign developments could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited pathways for an upset.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
$35,629 Vol.
$35,629 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Derek Tran (D)
91%
Chuong Vo (R)
9%
$35,629 Vol.
$35,629 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Derek Tran (D)
$19,878 Vol.
91%
Chuong Vo (R)
$15,751 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Derek Tran secured the Democratic nomination for California’s 45th congressional district with a commanding 53.8% in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing outright against Republican Chuong Vo. As the incumbent who flipped the seat by a narrow margin in 2024, Tran benefits from substantial fundraising dominance, established name recognition among the district’s sizable Asian-American electorate, and favorable post-redistricting lines that have shifted the seat toward Democratic-leaning performance in recent statewide contests. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November general election as likely or lean Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s structural advantages in a district where Republicans have struggled to consolidate support behind a single challenger. A late national political shift, unusually high Republican turnout, or unforeseen campaign developments could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$35,629Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Derek Tran secured the Democratic nomination for California’s 45th congressional district with a commanding 53.8% in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing outright against Republican Chuong Vo. As the incumbent who flipped the seat by a narrow margin in 2024, Tran benefits from substantial fundraising dominance, established name recognition among the district’s sizable Asian-American electorate, and favorable post-redistricting lines that have shifted the seat toward Democratic-leaning performance in recent statewide contests. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November general election as likely or lean Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s structural advantages in a district where Republicans have struggled to consolidate support behind a single challenger. A late national political shift, unusually high Republican turnout, or unforeseen campaign developments could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,629Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Derek Tran secured the Democratic nomination for California’s 45th congressional district with a commanding 53.8% in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing outright against Republican Chuong Vo. As the incumbent who flipped the seat by a narrow margin in 2024, Tran benefits from substantial fundraising dominance, established name recognition among the district’s sizable Asian-American electorate, and favorable post-redistricting lines that have shifted the seat toward Democratic-leaning performance in recent statewide contests. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the November general election as likely or lean Democratic, reflecting the incumbent’s structural advantages in a district where Republicans have struggled to consolidate support behind a single challenger. A late national political shift, unusually high Republican turnout, or unforeseen campaign developments could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited pathways for an upset.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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