Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the removal of Central Military Commission vice chairmen and other top generals through 2025 and early 2026, have reinforced centralized control and eliminated potential rival networks. Official announcements frame these actions as anti-corruption and discipline measures, with no independent reporting confirming coordinated efforts by military or security factions to seize power. Unverified online claims of plots around January 2026 lacked corroboration from credible sources and did not trigger market resolution. With the resolution window closing at the end of 2026, traders see limited remaining time for sudden shifts. Potential catalysts include abrupt leadership health developments or factional realignments ahead of the 2027 party congress, though structural barriers and ongoing consolidation make such outcomes improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
4% probabilità
$155,411 Vol.
$155,411 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$155,411 Vol.
$155,411 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the removal of Central Military Commission vice chairmen and other top generals through 2025 and early 2026, have reinforced centralized control and eliminated potential rival networks. Official announcements frame these actions as anti-corruption and discipline measures, with no independent reporting confirming coordinated efforts by military or security factions to seize power. Unverified online claims of plots around January 2026 lacked corroboration from credible sources and did not trigger market resolution. With the resolution window closing at the end of 2026, traders see limited remaining time for sudden shifts. Potential catalysts include abrupt leadership health developments or factional realignments ahead of the 2027 party congress, though structural barriers and ongoing consolidation make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$155,411Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the removal of Central Military Commission vice chairmen and other top generals through 2025 and early 2026, have reinforced centralized control and eliminated potential rival networks. Official announcements frame these actions as anti-corruption and discipline measures, with no independent reporting confirming coordinated efforts by military or security factions to seize power. Unverified online claims of plots around January 2026 lacked corroboration from credible sources and did not trigger market resolution. With the resolution window closing at the end of 2026, traders see limited remaining time for sudden shifts. Potential catalysts include abrupt leadership health developments or factional realignments ahead of the 2027 party congress, though structural barriers and ongoing consolidation make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$155,411Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army officers, including the removal of Central Military Commission vice chairmen and other top generals through 2025 and early 2026, have reinforced centralized control and eliminated potential rival networks. Official announcements frame these actions as anti-corruption and discipline measures, with no independent reporting confirming coordinated efforts by military or security factions to seize power. Unverified online claims of plots around January 2026 lacked corroboration from credible sources and did not trigger market resolution. With the resolution window closing at the end of 2026, traders see limited remaining time for sudden shifts. Potential catalysts include abrupt leadership health developments or factional realignments ahead of the 2027 party congress, though structural barriers and ongoing consolidation make such outcomes improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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