US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving its nuclear program largely dormant with no verified resumption of uranium enrichment activities. Roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium remains unaccounted for under rubble or in tunnels, but IAEA inspections are restricted and satellite imagery shows no active weaponization efforts. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations tied to a June 2026 memorandum of understanding emphasize down-blending this stockpile under supervision, while hardline Iranian rhetoric has not translated into official policy shifts or accelerated timelines. Traders assign 95 percent probability to no nuclear weapon by end-2026 due to these physical and diplomatic constraints. Remaining uncertainties include potential covert recovery of material or negotiation breakdowns that could allow faster reconstitution, though both face significant technical and verification hurdles in the remaining months.