The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence and a judicial ruling quashing subpoenas—underpins the 95.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Trader consensus reflects Powell’s completed term as chair in May 2026, the absence of any subsequent charges or active investigations, and the political nature of the earlier inquiry that failed to produce prosecutable facts. While tail risks remain remote, renewed politically motivated scrutiny or unrelated personal legal matters could theoretically alter the outlook before year-end 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato4% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
4% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence and a judicial ruling quashing subpoenas—underpins the 95.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Trader consensus reflects Powell’s completed term as chair in May 2026, the absence of any subsequent charges or active investigations, and the political nature of the earlier inquiry that failed to produce prosecutable facts. While tail risks remain remote, renewed politically motivated scrutiny or unrelated personal legal matters could theoretically alter the outlook before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Volume
$5,693Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence and a judicial ruling quashing subpoenas—underpins the 95.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Trader consensus reflects Powell’s completed term as chair in May 2026, the absence of any subsequent charges or active investigations, and the political nature of the earlier inquiry that failed to produce prosecutable facts. While tail risks remain remote, renewed politically motivated scrutiny or unrelated personal legal matters could theoretically alter the outlook before year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,693Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The Justice Department’s April 2026 closure of its criminal probe into Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations—citing insufficient evidence and a judicial ruling quashing subpoenas—underpins the 95.7% market-implied probability that he will not be jailed before 2027. Trader consensus reflects Powell’s completed term as chair in May 2026, the absence of any subsequent charges or active investigations, and the political nature of the earlier inquiry that failed to produce prosecutable facts. While tail risks remain remote, renewed politically motivated scrutiny or unrelated personal legal matters could theoretically alter the outlook before year-end 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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