The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%—its first hike since 2023—combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a median 4.1% rate by year-end, underpins the 100% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. Persistent inflation, with headline PCE projected at 3.7% and core at 3.4% for 2026 amid energy price shocks from geopolitical tensions, import tariffs, and robust AI-driven capital spending, has prompted the hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh. A resilient labor market and solid GDP growth of 2.3% further support tighter policy. Tail risks include faster-than-expected disinflation or a sharp economic slowdown that could prompt the FOMC to pause after the anticipated additional hike later this year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAumento dei tassi della Fed nel 2026?
Aumento dei tassi della Fed nel 2026?
Sì
>99% probabilità
$10,115,410 Vol.
$10,115,410 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sì
>99% probabilità
$10,115,410 Vol.
$10,115,410 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%—its first hike since 2023—combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a median 4.1% rate by year-end, underpins the 100% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. Persistent inflation, with headline PCE projected at 3.7% and core at 3.4% for 2026 amid energy price shocks from geopolitical tensions, import tariffs, and robust AI-driven capital spending, has prompted the hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh. A resilient labor market and solid GDP growth of 2.3% further support tighter policy. Tail risks include faster-than-expected disinflation or a sharp economic slowdown that could prompt the FOMC to pause after the anticipated additional hike later this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volume
$10,115,410Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%—its first hike since 2023—combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a median 4.1% rate by year-end, underpins the 100% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. Persistent inflation, with headline PCE projected at 3.7% and core at 3.4% for 2026 amid energy price shocks from geopolitical tensions, import tariffs, and robust AI-driven capital spending, has prompted the hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh. A resilient labor market and solid GDP growth of 2.3% further support tighter policy. Tail risks include faster-than-expected disinflation or a sharp economic slowdown that could prompt the FOMC to pause after the anticipated additional hike later this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,115,410Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Esito proposto: Sì
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: Sì
The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%—its first hike since 2023—combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a median 4.1% rate by year-end, underpins the 100% market-implied probability of at least one rate hike in 2026. Persistent inflation, with headline PCE projected at 3.7% and core at 3.4% for 2026 amid energy price shocks from geopolitical tensions, import tariffs, and robust AI-driven capital spending, has prompted the hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh. A resilient labor market and solid GDP growth of 2.3% further support tighter policy. Tail risks include faster-than-expected disinflation or a sharp economic slowdown that could prompt the FOMC to pause after the anticipated additional hike later this year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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