Strong labor market data and persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target are the main forces shaping trader pricing for the September, November, and December 2026 FOMC meetings. August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while supply-side bottlenecks have kept core measures elevated, prompting the new Fed chair to drop forward guidance and shift the median dot-plot projection for end-2026 higher to 3.8%. Markets currently assign roughly 58% odds to a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, with the balance of probabilities spread across mixed hike-hold sequences that reflect uncertainty over incoming CPI prints and whether any tightening will extend into year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPausa–pausa–pausa 33%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa 20%
Rialzo–Rialzo–Pausa 15%
Aumento–Pausa–Aumento 10%
$13,925 Vol.
$13,925 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Aumento–Pausa–Aumento
10%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa
20%
Aumento–Aumento–Aumento
6%
Rialzo–Rialzo–Pausa
15%
Pausa–Pausa–Aumento
5%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
33%
Pausa–Aumento–Aumento
4%
Pausa–Aumento–Pausa
6%
Altro
7%
Pausa–pausa–pausa 33%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa 20%
Rialzo–Rialzo–Pausa 15%
Aumento–Pausa–Aumento 10%
$13,925 Vol.
$13,925 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Aumento–Pausa–Aumento
$314 Vol.
10%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa
$505 Vol.
20%
Aumento–Aumento–Aumento
$216 Vol.
6%
Rialzo–Rialzo–Pausa
$429 Vol.
15%
Pausa–Pausa–Aumento
$557 Vol.
5%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
$11,072 Vol.
33%
Pausa–Aumento–Aumento
$242 Vol.
4%
Pausa–Aumento–Pausa
$341 Vol.
6%
Altro
$249 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong labor market data and persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target are the main forces shaping trader pricing for the September, November, and December 2026 FOMC meetings. August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while supply-side bottlenecks have kept core measures elevated, prompting the new Fed chair to drop forward guidance and shift the median dot-plot projection for end-2026 higher to 3.8%. Markets currently assign roughly 58% odds to a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, with the balance of probabilities spread across mixed hike-hold sequences that reflect uncertainty over incoming CPI prints and whether any tightening will extend into year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$13,925Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmStrong labor market data and persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target are the main forces shaping trader pricing for the September, November, and December 2026 FOMC meetings. August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while supply-side bottlenecks have kept core measures elevated, prompting the new Fed chair to drop forward guidance and shift the median dot-plot projection for end-2026 higher to 3.8%. Markets currently assign roughly 58% odds to a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, with the balance of probabilities spread across mixed hike-hold sequences that reflect uncertainty over incoming CPI prints and whether any tightening will extend into year-end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$13,925Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Strong labor market data and persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target are the main forces shaping trader pricing for the September, November, and December 2026 FOMC meetings. August nonfarm payrolls came in at 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while supply-side bottlenecks have kept core measures elevated, prompting the new Fed chair to drop forward guidance and shift the median dot-plot projection for end-2026 higher to 3.8%. Markets currently assign roughly 58% odds to a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15-16 meeting, with the balance of probabilities spread across mixed hike-hold sequences that reflect uncertainty over incoming CPI prints and whether any tightening will extend into year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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