Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured a decisive victory in the June 2026 Democratic primary for Maryland's 4th congressional district, capturing roughly 79 percent of the vote against multiple challengers and advancing to the November general election. The district's consistent Democratic performance, including a 77-point margin in the prior cycle, combined with Ivey's established fundraising edge and committee roles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current odds. Republican nominee George McDermott advanced unopposed in a low-turnout primary with minimal resources. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic. Unlikely but plausible shifts could stem from late scandals, health developments, or extreme turnout anomalies, though structural barriers in this Washington, D.C.-area seat limit such scenarios.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMD-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
MD-04 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$47,101 Vol.
$47,101 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Glenn Ivey (D)
97%
George McDermott (R)
<1%
$47,101 Vol.
$47,101 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Glenn Ivey (D)
$21,397 Vol.
97%
George McDermott (R)
$25,705 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured a decisive victory in the June 2026 Democratic primary for Maryland's 4th congressional district, capturing roughly 79 percent of the vote against multiple challengers and advancing to the November general election. The district's consistent Democratic performance, including a 77-point margin in the prior cycle, combined with Ivey's established fundraising edge and committee roles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current odds. Republican nominee George McDermott advanced unopposed in a low-turnout primary with minimal resources. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic. Unlikely but plausible shifts could stem from late scandals, health developments, or extreme turnout anomalies, though structural barriers in this Washington, D.C.-area seat limit such scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$47,101Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured a decisive victory in the June 2026 Democratic primary for Maryland's 4th congressional district, capturing roughly 79 percent of the vote against multiple challengers and advancing to the November general election. The district's consistent Democratic performance, including a 77-point margin in the prior cycle, combined with Ivey's established fundraising edge and committee roles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current odds. Republican nominee George McDermott advanced unopposed in a low-turnout primary with minimal resources. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic. Unlikely but plausible shifts could stem from late scandals, health developments, or extreme turnout anomalies, though structural barriers in this Washington, D.C.-area seat limit such scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$47,101Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey secured a decisive victory in the June 2026 Democratic primary for Maryland's 4th congressional district, capturing roughly 79 percent of the vote against multiple challengers and advancing to the November general election. The district's consistent Democratic performance, including a 77-point margin in the prior cycle, combined with Ivey's established fundraising edge and committee roles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the current odds. Republican nominee George McDermott advanced unopposed in a low-turnout primary with minimal resources. Forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic. Unlikely but plausible shifts could stem from late scandals, health developments, or extreme turnout anomalies, though structural barriers in this Washington, D.C.-area seat limit such scenarios.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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