Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the São Paulo gubernatorial election, reflecting consistent polling advantages as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and others place him between 42% and 53% in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 27–37%, with smaller candidates including those from PSTU, PCB, and Agir registering under 3%. His broad coalition spanning Republicanos, MDB, PL, and other parties, combined with stable or slightly expanding margins in valid votes, supports expectations of a first-round victory in many projections. A runoff simulation on October 25 shows similar dominance. Late shifts remain possible if turnout patterns, campaign momentum, or last-minute developments alter voter behavior before the first round.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTarcísio de Freitas 97.8%
Fernando Haddad <1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$311,417 Vol.
$311,417 Vol.
3 ott 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
98%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Erika Hilton
<1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 97.8%
Fernando Haddad <1%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$311,417 Vol.
$311,417 Vol.
3 ott 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$147,004 Vol.
98%
Fernando Haddad
$51,553 Vol.
1%
Erika Hilton
$23,068 Vol.
<1%
Kim Kataguiri
$79,124 Vol.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 Vol.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the São Paulo gubernatorial election, reflecting consistent polling advantages as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and others place him between 42% and 53% in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 27–37%, with smaller candidates including those from PSTU, PCB, and Agir registering under 3%. His broad coalition spanning Republicanos, MDB, PL, and other parties, combined with stable or slightly expanding margins in valid votes, supports expectations of a first-round victory in many projections. A runoff simulation on October 25 shows similar dominance. Late shifts remain possible if turnout patterns, campaign momentum, or last-minute developments alter voter behavior before the first round.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Volume
$311,417Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the São Paulo gubernatorial election, reflecting consistent polling advantages as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and others place him between 42% and 53% in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 27–37%, with smaller candidates including those from PSTU, PCB, and Agir registering under 3%. His broad coalition spanning Republicanos, MDB, PL, and other parties, combined with stable or slightly expanding margins in valid votes, supports expectations of a first-round victory in many projections. A runoff simulation on October 25 shows similar dominance. Late shifts remain possible if turnout patterns, campaign momentum, or last-minute developments alter voter behavior before the first round.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$311,417Data di fine
4 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the São Paulo gubernatorial election, reflecting consistent polling advantages as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and others place him between 42% and 53% in the first round against Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party at 27–37%, with smaller candidates including those from PSTU, PCB, and Agir registering under 3%. His broad coalition spanning Republicanos, MDB, PL, and other parties, combined with stable or slightly expanding margins in valid votes, supports expectations of a first-round victory in many projections. A runoff simulation on October 25 shows similar dominance. Late shifts remain possible if turnout patterns, campaign momentum, or last-minute developments alter voter behavior before the first round.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti