Recent U.S. goods and services trade data show the monthly deficit widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71.2 billion in June, driven by higher imports of computers and semiconductors alongside lower exports of energy products, while year-to-date figures through July improved 29.6% versus 2025 amid the reversal of 2025 tariff-related stockpiling. The February 2026 Supreme Court ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs lowered the effective rate by more than half, boosting import volumes and contributing to CBO estimates of higher primary deficits, though Section 301 and 232 measures plus ongoing negotiations with Canada continue to shape flows. AI-related capital goods imports remain a key support for overall trade growth. With the 700–900 billion outcome band holding roughly 78% implied probability, trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether policy-driven import moderation or broader macroeconomic demand will dominate the full-year total, ahead of August data due October 6.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$24,106 Vol.
$24,106 Vol.
27 feb 2027
<500 miliardi
3%
500–600 miliardi
6%
600–700 miliardi
10%
700–800 miliardi
36%
800–900 miliardi
42%
900 miliardi–1 trilione
16%
1T–1,1T
5%
1,1T+
5%
$24,106 Vol.
$24,106 Vol.
27 feb 2027
<500 miliardi
$16,854 Vol.
3%
500–600 miliardi
$454 Vol.
6%
600–700 miliardi
$543 Vol.
10%
700–800 miliardi
$670 Vol.
36%
800–900 miliardi
$1,529 Vol.
42%
900 miliardi–1 trilione
$1,469 Vol.
16%
1T–1,1T
$1,468 Vol.
5%
1,1T+
$1,119 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. goods and services trade data show the monthly deficit widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71.2 billion in June, driven by higher imports of computers and semiconductors alongside lower exports of energy products, while year-to-date figures through July improved 29.6% versus 2025 amid the reversal of 2025 tariff-related stockpiling. The February 2026 Supreme Court ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs lowered the effective rate by more than half, boosting import volumes and contributing to CBO estimates of higher primary deficits, though Section 301 and 232 measures plus ongoing negotiations with Canada continue to shape flows. AI-related capital goods imports remain a key support for overall trade growth. With the 700–900 billion outcome band holding roughly 78% implied probability, trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether policy-driven import moderation or broader macroeconomic demand will dominate the full-year total, ahead of August data due October 6.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,106Data di fine
28 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. goods and services trade data show the monthly deficit widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71.2 billion in June, driven by higher imports of computers and semiconductors alongside lower exports of energy products, while year-to-date figures through July improved 29.6% versus 2025 amid the reversal of 2025 tariff-related stockpiling. The February 2026 Supreme Court ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs lowered the effective rate by more than half, boosting import volumes and contributing to CBO estimates of higher primary deficits, though Section 301 and 232 measures plus ongoing negotiations with Canada continue to shape flows. AI-related capital goods imports remain a key support for overall trade growth. With the 700–900 billion outcome band holding roughly 78% implied probability, trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether policy-driven import moderation or broader macroeconomic demand will dominate the full-year total, ahead of August data due October 6.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,106Data di fine
28 feb 2027Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. goods and services trade data show the monthly deficit widening to $88.6 billion in July 2026 from $71.2 billion in June, driven by higher imports of computers and semiconductors alongside lower exports of energy products, while year-to-date figures through July improved 29.6% versus 2025 amid the reversal of 2025 tariff-related stockpiling. The February 2026 Supreme Court ruling striking down IEEPA tariffs lowered the effective rate by more than half, boosting import volumes and contributing to CBO estimates of higher primary deficits, though Section 301 and 232 measures plus ongoing negotiations with Canada continue to shape flows. AI-related capital goods imports remain a key support for overall trade growth. With the 700–900 billion outcome band holding roughly 78% implied probability, trader positioning reflects uncertainty over whether policy-driven import moderation or broader macroeconomic demand will dominate the full-year total, ahead of August data due October 6.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti