Traders assign the highest implied probability to Claude experiencing downtime on 5-7 days in September because Anthropic’s service has logged multiple incidents since the month began, including intermittent error spikes on Mythos 5.1 and Fable 5.1 models around September 11 and 15 plus several hours of elevated errors and degraded performance on September 3. These align with the company’s history of capacity strain as new large language models scale, even as the platform reports operational status on September 19 with 99-plus percent uptime over recent 90-day windows. Minor degradations, such as the multi-day Claude Cowork Windows issue tied to a Microsoft update, further contribute to the consensus without pushing totals dramatically higher. Key near-term catalysts include any additional model releases or demand surges that could trigger further partial outages before month-end.