Robert Garcia, the Democratic incumbent and former Long Beach mayor, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 56.5% of the vote against Republican Brian Burley’s 20.6% in California’s 42nd congressional district. The district’s partisan composition, which includes a strong Democratic base in Long Beach alongside more competitive Orange County areas, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for Garcia. Fundraising data shows Garcia holding a substantial edge, while independent race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. Burley’s third congressional bid and limited resources have not narrowed the gap ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant shift would require an unexpected national political realignment, major candidate-specific development, or turnout anomaly that overrides the district’s established leanings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$24,083 Vol.
$24,083 Vol.
2026/11/02
ロバート・ガルシア（民主党）
95%
ブライアン・バーリー（共和党）
6%
$24,083 Vol.
$24,083 Vol.
2026/11/02
ロバート・ガルシア（民主党）
$12,534 Vol.
95%
ブライアン・バーリー（共和党）
$11,549 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-42 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Robert Garcia, the Democratic incumbent and former Long Beach mayor, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 56.5% of the vote against Republican Brian Burley’s 20.6% in California’s 42nd congressional district. The district’s partisan composition, which includes a strong Democratic base in Long Beach alongside more competitive Orange County areas, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for Garcia. Fundraising data shows Garcia holding a substantial edge, while independent race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. Burley’s third congressional bid and limited resources have not narrowed the gap ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant shift would require an unexpected national political realignment, major candidate-specific development, or turnout anomaly that overrides the district’s established leanings.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-42 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
音量
$24,083終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-42 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Robert Garcia, the Democratic incumbent and former Long Beach mayor, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 56.5% of the vote against Republican Brian Burley’s 20.6% in California’s 42nd congressional district. The district’s partisan composition, which includes a strong Democratic base in Long Beach alongside more competitive Orange County areas, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for Garcia. Fundraising data shows Garcia holding a substantial edge, while independent race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. Burley’s third congressional bid and limited resources have not narrowed the gap ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant shift would require an unexpected national political realignment, major candidate-specific development, or turnout anomaly that overrides the district’s established leanings.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-42 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$24,083終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Robert Garcia, the Democratic incumbent and former Long Beach mayor, advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with 56.5% of the vote against Republican Brian Burley’s 20.6% in California’s 42nd congressional district. The district’s partisan composition, which includes a strong Democratic base in Long Beach alongside more competitive Orange County areas, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for Garcia. Fundraising data shows Garcia holding a substantial edge, while independent race ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and others classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic. Burley’s third congressional bid and limited resources have not narrowed the gap ahead of the November 3 general election. A significant shift would require an unexpected national political realignment, major candidate-specific development, or turnout anomaly that overrides the district’s established leanings.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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