The withdrawal of incumbent Republican Chuck Edwards in early August 2026, following a House Ethics Committee report and subsequent censure over sexual harassment violations, forced North Carolina Republicans to select state Representative Jennifer Balkcom as the replacement nominee on August 10. Democrat Jamie Ager, who won his March primary, holds a substantial cash-on-hand advantage exceeding $2 million and national Democratic support through the DCCC’s Red to Blue program. Balkcom received a Trump endorsement and NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program in September, yet her abbreviated campaign timeline limits visibility in a district that favored Republicans by double digits in 2024. Traders appear to weigh these late-candidate dynamics and resource gaps more heavily than the district’s underlying partisan lean, producing the current implied probability favoring Ager.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,831 Vol.
$15,831 Vol.
2026/11/03
ジェイミー・エイジャー（民主党）
62%
ジェニファー・バルコム（共和党）
37%
$15,831 Vol.
$15,831 Vol.
2026/11/03
ジェイミー・エイジャー（民主党）
$7,342 Vol.
62%
ジェニファー・バルコム（共和党）
$8,488 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The withdrawal of incumbent Republican Chuck Edwards in early August 2026, following a House Ethics Committee report and subsequent censure over sexual harassment violations, forced North Carolina Republicans to select state Representative Jennifer Balkcom as the replacement nominee on August 10. Democrat Jamie Ager, who won his March primary, holds a substantial cash-on-hand advantage exceeding $2 million and national Democratic support through the DCCC’s Red to Blue program. Balkcom received a Trump endorsement and NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program in September, yet her abbreviated campaign timeline limits visibility in a district that favored Republicans by double digits in 2024. Traders appear to weigh these late-candidate dynamics and resource gaps more heavily than the district’s underlying partisan lean, producing the current implied probability favoring Ager.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
音量
$15,831終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The withdrawal of incumbent Republican Chuck Edwards in early August 2026, following a House Ethics Committee report and subsequent censure over sexual harassment violations, forced North Carolina Republicans to select state Representative Jennifer Balkcom as the replacement nominee on August 10. Democrat Jamie Ager, who won his March primary, holds a substantial cash-on-hand advantage exceeding $2 million and national Democratic support through the DCCC’s Red to Blue program. Balkcom received a Trump endorsement and NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program in September, yet her abbreviated campaign timeline limits visibility in a district that favored Republicans by double digits in 2024. Traders appear to weigh these late-candidate dynamics and resource gaps more heavily than the district’s underlying partisan lean, producing the current implied probability favoring Ager.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$15,831終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...The withdrawal of incumbent Republican Chuck Edwards in early August 2026, following a House Ethics Committee report and subsequent censure over sexual harassment violations, forced North Carolina Republicans to select state Representative Jennifer Balkcom as the replacement nominee on August 10. Democrat Jamie Ager, who won his March primary, holds a substantial cash-on-hand advantage exceeding $2 million and national Democratic support through the DCCC’s Red to Blue program. Balkcom received a Trump endorsement and NRCC inclusion in its MAGA Majority program in September, yet her abbreviated campaign timeline limits visibility in a district that favored Republicans by double digits in 2024. Traders appear to weigh these late-candidate dynamics and resource gaps more heavily than the district’s underlying partisan lean, producing the current implied probability favoring Ager.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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