Recent debt limit legislation enacted in July 2025 raised the statutory ceiling by $5 trillion to approximately $41.1 trillion, leaving substantial headroom as total debt subject to the limit stands near $39.7–40 trillion in late August 2026. Treasury cash balances near $940 billion and access to extraordinary measures further extend runway well beyond December 2026. Historical patterns show Congress has consistently raised or suspended the limit ahead of any payment shortfall, with both parties prioritizing avoidance of market disruption, higher yields, and economic costs. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and rating agencies place the next binding deadline and potential X-date in 2027. Even amid rising yields and deficit pressures, these structural buffers and institutional incentives sustain trader consensus against any missed Treasury payment by year-end 2026, though prolonged post-midterm impasse or sharp spending shocks could still compress timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
2027年までに米国の債務不履行？
はい
3% 確率
$16,706 Vol.
$16,706 Vol.
2026/12/30
はい
3% 確率
$16,706 Vol.
$16,706 Vol.
2026/12/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Recent debt limit legislation enacted in July 2025 raised the statutory ceiling by $5 trillion to approximately $41.1 trillion, leaving substantial headroom as total debt subject to the limit stands near $39.7–40 trillion in late August 2026. Treasury cash balances near $940 billion and access to extraordinary measures further extend runway well beyond December 2026. Historical patterns show Congress has consistently raised or suspended the limit ahead of any payment shortfall, with both parties prioritizing avoidance of market disruption, higher yields, and economic costs. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and rating agencies place the next binding deadline and potential X-date in 2027. Even amid rising yields and deficit pressures, these structural buffers and institutional incentives sustain trader consensus against any missed Treasury payment by year-end 2026, though prolonged post-midterm impasse or sharp spending shocks could still compress timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
音量
$16,706終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Recent debt limit legislation enacted in July 2025 raised the statutory ceiling by $5 trillion to approximately $41.1 trillion, leaving substantial headroom as total debt subject to the limit stands near $39.7–40 trillion in late August 2026. Treasury cash balances near $940 billion and access to extraordinary measures further extend runway well beyond December 2026. Historical patterns show Congress has consistently raised or suspended the limit ahead of any payment shortfall, with both parties prioritizing avoidance of market disruption, higher yields, and economic costs. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and rating agencies place the next binding deadline and potential X-date in 2027. Even amid rising yields and deficit pressures, these structural buffers and institutional incentives sustain trader consensus against any missed Treasury payment by year-end 2026, though prolonged post-midterm impasse or sharp spending shocks could still compress timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
音量
$16,706終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent debt limit legislation enacted in July 2025 raised the statutory ceiling by $5 trillion to approximately $41.1 trillion, leaving substantial headroom as total debt subject to the limit stands near $39.7–40 trillion in late August 2026. Treasury cash balances near $940 billion and access to extraordinary measures further extend runway well beyond December 2026. Historical patterns show Congress has consistently raised or suspended the limit ahead of any payment shortfall, with both parties prioritizing avoidance of market disruption, higher yields, and economic costs. Projections from the Bipartisan Policy Center and rating agencies place the next binding deadline and potential X-date in 2027. Even amid rising yields and deficit pressures, these structural buffers and institutional incentives sustain trader consensus against any missed Treasury payment by year-end 2026, though prolonged post-midterm impasse or sharp spending shocks could still compress timelines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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