Recent monthly U.S. trade data, including the July 2026 goods-and-services deficit widening to $88.6 billion from $73.3 billion in June, reflect the unwind of 2025 tariff-driven import front-loading alongside sustained demand for AI-related capital goods such as semiconductors and computers. Energy export gains and a robust services surplus have provided offsets, keeping the year-to-date gap narrower than 2025 levels, yet underlying import momentum from data-center buildouts supports market-implied odds clustering in the $700–900 billion annual range. With 800–900B at 37% and 700–800B at 28%, traders appear focused on August data due October 6 and ongoing tariff and geopolitical effects as key swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$24,712 Vol.
$24,712 Vol.
2027/04/30
5,000億ドル未満
3%
5000億〜6000億
5%
6000億〜7000億
10%
7,000億〜8,000億ドル
29%
8000億～9000億
38%
9,000億〜1兆
13%
1兆〜1.1兆
3%
1.1兆ドル以上
3%
$24,712 Vol.
$24,712 Vol.
2027/04/30
5,000億ドル未満
$16,854 Vol.
3%
5000億〜6000億
$454 Vol.
5%
6000億〜7000億
$543 Vol.
10%
7,000億〜8,000億ドル
$720 Vol.
29%
8000億～9000億
$1,845 Vol.
38%
9,000億〜1兆
$1,509 Vol.
13%
1兆〜1.1兆
$1,572 Vol.
3%
1.1兆ドル以上
$1,215 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data, including the July 2026 goods-and-services deficit widening to $88.6 billion from $73.3 billion in June, reflect the unwind of 2025 tariff-driven import front-loading alongside sustained demand for AI-related capital goods such as semiconductors and computers. Energy export gains and a robust services surplus have provided offsets, keeping the year-to-date gap narrower than 2025 levels, yet underlying import momentum from data-center buildouts supports market-implied odds clustering in the $700–900 billion annual range. With 800–900B at 37% and 700–800B at 28%, traders appear focused on August data due October 6 and ongoing tariff and geopolitical effects as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
音量
$24,712終了日
2027/05/01マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data, including the July 2026 goods-and-services deficit widening to $88.6 billion from $73.3 billion in June, reflect the unwind of 2025 tariff-driven import front-loading alongside sustained demand for AI-related capital goods such as semiconductors and computers. Energy export gains and a robust services surplus have provided offsets, keeping the year-to-date gap narrower than 2025 levels, yet underlying import momentum from data-center buildouts supports market-implied odds clustering in the $700–900 billion annual range. With 800–900B at 37% and 700–800B at 28%, traders appear focused on August data due October 6 and ongoing tariff and geopolitical effects as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
音量
$24,712終了日
2027/05/01マーケット開始日
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. trade data, including the July 2026 goods-and-services deficit widening to $88.6 billion from $73.3 billion in June, reflect the unwind of 2025 tariff-driven import front-loading alongside sustained demand for AI-related capital goods such as semiconductors and computers. Energy export gains and a robust services surplus have provided offsets, keeping the year-to-date gap narrower than 2025 levels, yet underlying import momentum from data-center buildouts supports market-implied odds clustering in the $700–900 billion annual range. With 800–900B at 37% and 700–800B at 28%, traders appear focused on August data due October 6 and ongoing tariff and geopolitical effects as key swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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