Strong El Niño conditions have generated persistent high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification during the 2026 season. NOAA’s August outlook assigns only a 5% chance of above-normal activity and forecasts 0–2 major hurricanes total, while Colorado State University estimates U.S. major-hurricane landfall odds well below the long-term 43% average. As of late August, just four weak tropical storms have formed, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy only 10% of normal. Category 5 systems require exceptional atmospheric and oceanic conditions that current shear and cooler subsurface temperatures make improbable before November 30. These verified agency assessments and the season’s quiet start underpin the market’s 86% “No” consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
14% 確率
$139,749 Vol.
$139,749 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
14% 確率
$139,749 Vol.
$139,749 Vol.
2026/12/31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions have generated persistent high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification during the 2026 season. NOAA’s August outlook assigns only a 5% chance of above-normal activity and forecasts 0–2 major hurricanes total, while Colorado State University estimates U.S. major-hurricane landfall odds well below the long-term 43% average. As of late August, just four weak tropical storms have formed, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy only 10% of normal. Category 5 systems require exceptional atmospheric and oceanic conditions that current shear and cooler subsurface temperatures make improbable before November 30. These verified agency assessments and the season’s quiet start underpin the market’s 86% “No” consensus.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
マーケット開始日： Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
音量
$139,749終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Strong El Niño conditions have generated persistent high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification during the 2026 season. NOAA’s August outlook assigns only a 5% chance of above-normal activity and forecasts 0–2 major hurricanes total, while Colorado State University estimates U.S. major-hurricane landfall odds well below the long-term 43% average. As of late August, just four weak tropical storms have formed, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy only 10% of normal. Category 5 systems require exceptional atmospheric and oceanic conditions that current shear and cooler subsurface temperatures make improbable before November 30. These verified agency assessments and the season’s quiet start underpin the market’s 86% “No” consensus.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
音量
$139,749終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions have generated persistent high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing tropical cyclone formation and intensification during the 2026 season. NOAA’s August outlook assigns only a 5% chance of above-normal activity and forecasts 0–2 major hurricanes total, while Colorado State University estimates U.S. major-hurricane landfall odds well below the long-term 43% average. As of late August, just four weak tropical storms have formed, yielding an Accumulated Cyclone Energy only 10% of normal. Category 5 systems require exceptional atmospheric and oceanic conditions that current shear and cooler subsurface temperatures make improbable before November 30. These verified agency assessments and the season’s quiet start underpin the market’s 86% “No” consensus.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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