Recent state-level polling in Amazonas shows President Lula (PT) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38-40% and Flávio at 35-39% in late-August surveys by Quaest and Real Time Big Data. This positioning reflects Lula’s stronger support in the state’s interior municipalities offsetting Flávio’s competitiveness in Manaus, consistent with broader national trends where the incumbent maintains an edge amid the October 4 first-round vote. Minor candidates such as Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others register in single digits or lower, limiting their prospects for topping the state ballot. Traders assign Lula the highest implied probability for first place locally, with Flávio as the clearest alternative and all others trading well below.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoLula 65%
Flavio Bolsonaro 32%
Renan Santos <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$20,186 Wol.
$20,186 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
65%
Flavio Bolsonaro
32%
Renan Santos
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Lula 65%
Flavio Bolsonaro 32%
Renan Santos <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
$20,186 Wol.
$20,186 Wol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$6,192 Wol.
65%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$5,646 Wol.
32%
Renan Santos
$944 Wol.
<1%
Clariana Barao
$823 Wol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$729 Wol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$571 Wol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$747 Wol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$836 Wol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$751 Wol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$855 Wol.
<1%
Samara
$542 Wol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$908 Wol.
<1%
Zema
$641 Wol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent state-level polling in Amazonas shows President Lula (PT) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38-40% and Flávio at 35-39% in late-August surveys by Quaest and Real Time Big Data. This positioning reflects Lula’s stronger support in the state’s interior municipalities offsetting Flávio’s competitiveness in Manaus, consistent with broader national trends where the incumbent maintains an edge amid the October 4 first-round vote. Minor candidates such as Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others register in single digits or lower, limiting their prospects for topping the state ballot. Traders assign Lula the highest implied probability for first place locally, with Flávio as the clearest alternative and all others trading well below.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Rynek otwarty: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Wolumen
$20,186Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent state-level polling in Amazonas shows President Lula (PT) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38-40% and Flávio at 35-39% in late-August surveys by Quaest and Real Time Big Data. This positioning reflects Lula’s stronger support in the state’s interior municipalities offsetting Flávio’s competitiveness in Manaus, consistent with broader national trends where the incumbent maintains an edge amid the October 4 first-round vote. Minor candidates such as Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others register in single digits or lower, limiting their prospects for topping the state ballot. Traders assign Lula the highest implied probability for first place locally, with Flávio as the clearest alternative and all others trading well below.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Wolumen
$20,186Data zakończenia
Oct 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent state-level polling in Amazonas shows President Lula (PT) holding a narrow lead or technical tie with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in first-round voting intentions, with Lula at 38-40% and Flávio at 35-39% in late-August surveys by Quaest and Real Time Big Data. This positioning reflects Lula’s stronger support in the state’s interior municipalities offsetting Flávio’s competitiveness in Manaus, consistent with broader national trends where the incumbent maintains an edge amid the October 4 first-round vote. Minor candidates such as Renan Santos, Pablo Marçal, Ronaldo Caiado, and others register in single digits or lower, limiting their prospects for topping the state ballot. Traders assign Lula the highest implied probability for first place locally, with Flávio as the clearest alternative and all others trading well below.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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