Matt Little secured the Democratic nomination for Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District in the August 11, 2026 primary with 47% of the vote, advancing to face Republican Eric Pratt in the November 3 general election for the open seat vacated by Angie Craig. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic, citing the district's recent voting patterns, suburban demographics in the southern Twin Cities metro area, and Little's advantages in fundraising and endorsements from state and national Democratic groups. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors and the absence of major recent shifts that would alter the baseline outlook. A significantly stronger national Republican environment, unexpected developments affecting turnout among suburban or rural voters, or late-campaign events could still narrow the margin.