California's 14th congressional district, encompassing parts of the East Bay and Silicon Valley, carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent election results. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the November 3 general election after Republicans combined for under 25 percent of the vote and failed to secure a spot. This outcome stems from the district's voter registration and turnout patterns, the open seat following Eric Swalwell's resignation, and California's primary system. Trader consensus at 97.4 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with these structural factors and historical margins. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in participation or candidate withdrawal, neither of which has precedent in recent cycles for this seat.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição da Câmara do CA-14
Vencedor da eleição da Câmara do CA-14
$35,762 Vol.
$35,762 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
97%
Partido Republicano
<1%
$35,762 Vol.
$35,762 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Democrata
$14,006 Vol.
97%
Partido Republicano
$21,756 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district, encompassing parts of the East Bay and Silicon Valley, carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent election results. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the November 3 general election after Republicans combined for under 25 percent of the vote and failed to secure a spot. This outcome stems from the district's voter registration and turnout patterns, the open seat following Eric Swalwell's resignation, and California's primary system. Trader consensus at 97.4 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with these structural factors and historical margins. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in participation or candidate withdrawal, neither of which has precedent in recent cycles for this seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$35,762Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district, encompassing parts of the East Bay and Silicon Valley, carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent election results. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the November 3 general election after Republicans combined for under 25 percent of the vote and failed to secure a spot. This outcome stems from the district's voter registration and turnout patterns, the open seat following Eric Swalwell's resignation, and California's primary system. Trader consensus at 97.4 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with these structural factors and historical margins. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in participation or candidate withdrawal, neither of which has precedent in recent cycles for this seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,762Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th congressional district, encompassing parts of the East Bay and Silicon Valley, carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in its D+19 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent election results. The June 2026 top-two primary advanced two Democratic candidates—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the November 3 general election after Republicans combined for under 25 percent of the vote and failed to secure a spot. This outcome stems from the district's voter registration and turnout patterns, the open seat following Eric Swalwell's resignation, and California's primary system. Trader consensus at 97.4 percent for the Democratic Party aligns with these structural factors and historical margins. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented shift in participation or candidate withdrawal, neither of which has precedent in recent cycles for this seat.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions