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icon for Primária Socialista Francesa: Vencedor da Primeira Rodada
Política·França

Primária Socialista Francesa: Vencedor da Primeira Rodada

icon for Primária Socialista Francesa: Vencedor da Primeira Rodada
Política·França

Primária Socialista Francesa: Vencedor da Primeira Rodada

Raphaël Glucksmann 88%

Olivier Faure 9%

Jérôme Guedj 4.9%

Ségolène Royal 4.5%

Polymarket
NOVO

Raphaël Glucksmann 88%

Olivier Faure 9%

Jérôme Guedj 4.9%

Ségolène Royal 4.5%

Polymarket
NOVO
icon for Raphaël Glucksmann

Raphaël Glucksmann

$2,915 Vol.

88%

icon for Olivier Faure

Olivier Faure

$302 Vol.

9%

icon for Jérôme Guedj

Jérôme Guedj

$226 Vol.

5%

icon for Ségolène Royal

Ségolène Royal

$695 Vol.

5%

icon for Emmanuel Maurel

Emmanuel Maurel

$187 Vol.

2%

icon for Philippe Brun

Philippe Brun

$140 Vol.

1%

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary. If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Raphaël Glucksmann leads the first-round vote in the October 9–10 primary organized by the Parti Socialiste, Place Publique, and Gauche républicaine et socialiste because his 2024 European Parliament results and subsequent presidential polling place him well ahead of the other four validated candidates. The September 16 candidate list confirmed his participation alongside Olivier Faure, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel after Philippe Brun’s suspension over violence allegations removed a potential rival. Traders view Glucksmann’s established national profile and cross-party support within the social-democratic space as decisive advantages ahead of the scheduled televised debates. The electronic ballot structure, open to members and paid new adherents, further reinforces the current market pricing around his frontrunner status.

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.

This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.

If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".

Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary. If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volume
$4,465
Data de Término
10 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary. If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.Raphaël Glucksmann leads the first-round vote in the October 9–10 primary organized by the Parti Socialiste, Place Publique, and Gauche républicaine et socialiste because his 2024 European Parliament results and subsequent presidential polling place him well ahead of the other four validated candidates. The September 16 candidate list confirmed his participation alongside Olivier Faure, Jérôme Guedj, Ségolène Royal, and Emmanuel Maurel after Philippe Brun’s suspension over violence allegations removed a potential rival. Traders view Glucksmann’s established national profile and cross-party support within the social-democratic space as decisive advantages ahead of the scheduled televised debates. The electronic ballot structure, open to members and paid new adherents, further reinforces the current market pricing around his frontrunner status.

The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026.

This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary.

If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other".

Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.The Socialist Party of France (Parti socialiste, PS) is holding a primary to select their nominee for the 2027 French presidential elections. The first round is scheduled to be held on October 9-10, 2026, and the second round on October 16-17, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who receives the greatest number of votes in the first round of the primary. If the first round is cancelled or does not take place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Paris time, this market will resolve to "Other". Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of votes received in the first round, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If two or more candidates are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed candidate names. This market will resolve to the candidate who occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official PS sources, including https://parti-socialiste.fr/.
Volume
$4,465
Data de Término
10 out 2026
Mercado Aberto
Sep 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Primária Socialista Francesa: Vencedor da Primeira Rodada" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Raphaël Glucksmann" at 88%, followed by "Olivier Faure" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 88¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Primária Socialista Francesa: Vencedor da Primeira Rodada" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Primária Socialista Francesa: Vencedor da Primeira Rodada," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Primária Socialista Francesa: Vencedor da Primeira Rodada" is "Raphaël Glucksmann" at 88%, meaning the market assigns a 88% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Olivier Faure" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Primária Socialista Francesa: Vencedor da Primeira Rodada" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.