Dr. Furlan (PSD) holds an 89% implied probability in the Amapá governor race due to consistent polling leads of 55-62% in surveys from August and September 2026, far ahead of incumbent Clécio Luís (União) at 32-35% and minor candidates like Delegado Marcos Reategui, Jairo Palheta, and Carlos Cley, each below 3%. His strong performance stems from high popularity after reelection as Macapá mayor with over 85% in 2024 and an active campaign featuring interviews, rallies, and meetings across the state ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent developments include a postponed TSE ineligibility hearing tied to prior municipal events and whistleblower accusations of faction ties, which Furlan has denied as political targeting. These factors have kept trader consensus heavily weighted toward Furlan while leaving limited room for upset scenarios.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДоктор Фурлан 89%
Клесиу Луис 4.5%
Маркос Реатеги 3.3%
Жаиро Пальета 1.9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 окт. 2026 г.
Доктор Фурлан
89%
Клесиу Луис
5%
Маркос Реатеги
3%
Жаиро Пальета
2%
Карлос Клей
<1%
Доктор Фурлан 89%
Клесиу Луис 4.5%
Маркос Реатеги 3.3%
Жаиро Пальета 1.9%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
4 окт. 2026 г.
Доктор Фурлан
$8,563 Объем
89%
Клесиу Луис
$330 Объем
5%
Маркос Реатеги
$214 Объем
3%
Жаиро Пальета
$374 Объем
2%
Карлос Клей
$163 Объем
<1%
The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Dr. Furlan (PSD) holds an 89% implied probability in the Amapá governor race due to consistent polling leads of 55-62% in surveys from August and September 2026, far ahead of incumbent Clécio Luís (União) at 32-35% and minor candidates like Delegado Marcos Reategui, Jairo Palheta, and Carlos Cley, each below 3%. His strong performance stems from high popularity after reelection as Macapá mayor with over 85% in 2024 and an active campaign featuring interviews, rallies, and meetings across the state ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent developments include a postponed TSE ineligibility hearing tied to prior municipal events and whistleblower accusations of faction ties, which Furlan has denied as political targeting. These factors have kept trader consensus heavily weighted toward Furlan while leaving limited room for upset scenarios.
The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Открытие рынка: Aug 17, 2026, 5:31 AM ET
Объем
$9,645Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 5:31 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Dr. Furlan (PSD) holds an 89% implied probability in the Amapá governor race due to consistent polling leads of 55-62% in surveys from August and September 2026, far ahead of incumbent Clécio Luís (União) at 32-35% and minor candidates like Delegado Marcos Reategui, Jairo Palheta, and Carlos Cley, each below 3%. His strong performance stems from high popularity after reelection as Macapá mayor with over 85% in 2024 and an active campaign featuring interviews, rallies, and meetings across the state ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent developments include a postponed TSE ineligibility hearing tied to prior municipal events and whistleblower accusations of faction ties, which Furlan has denied as political targeting. These factors have kept trader consensus heavily weighted toward Furlan while leaving limited room for upset scenarios.
The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Объем
$9,645Дата окончания
4 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 17, 2026, 5:31 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Dr. Furlan (PSD) holds an 89% implied probability in the Amapá governor race due to consistent polling leads of 55-62% in surveys from August and September 2026, far ahead of incumbent Clécio Luís (União) at 32-35% and minor candidates like Delegado Marcos Reategui, Jairo Palheta, and Carlos Cley, each below 3%. His strong performance stems from high popularity after reelection as Macapá mayor with over 85% in 2024 and an active campaign featuring interviews, rallies, and meetings across the state ahead of the October 4 first-round vote. Recent developments include a postponed TSE ineligibility hearing tied to prior municipal events and whistleblower accusations of faction ties, which Furlan has denied as political targeting. These factors have kept trader consensus heavily weighted toward Furlan while leaving limited room for upset scenarios.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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