Tom McClintock's commanding position in the CA-05 House race stems from the district's established Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with his long incumbency and strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary where he secured 61% of the vote against Democratic challenger Michael Masuda. Multiple forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election, supported by McClintock's consistent fundraising advantage and the absence of significant primary opposition. Trader consensus assigns high implied probability to his reelection, consistent with historical patterns in similarly partisan districts. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national Democratic surge could still narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-05 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$15,299 Объем
$15,299 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Том МакКлинток (Р)
94%
Майкл Масуда (Д)
6%
$15,299 Объем
$15,299 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Том МакКлинток (Р)
$6,905 Объем
94%
Майкл Масуда (Д)
$8,394 Объем
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tom McClintock's commanding position in the CA-05 House race stems from the district's established Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with his long incumbency and strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary where he secured 61% of the vote against Democratic challenger Michael Masuda. Multiple forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election, supported by McClintock's consistent fundraising advantage and the absence of significant primary opposition. Trader consensus assigns high implied probability to his reelection, consistent with historical patterns in similarly partisan districts. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national Democratic surge could still narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Объем
$15,299Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tom McClintock's commanding position in the CA-05 House race stems from the district's established Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with his long incumbency and strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary where he secured 61% of the vote against Democratic challenger Michael Masuda. Multiple forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election, supported by McClintock's consistent fundraising advantage and the absence of significant primary opposition. Trader consensus assigns high implied probability to his reelection, consistent with historical patterns in similarly partisan districts. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national Democratic surge could still narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$15,299Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Tom McClintock's commanding position in the CA-05 House race stems from the district's established Republican tilt, reflected in its R+10 Cook Partisan Voter Index, combined with his long incumbency and strong performance in the June 2026 top-two primary where he secured 61% of the vote against Democratic challenger Michael Masuda. Multiple forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican ahead of the November general election, supported by McClintock's consistent fundraising advantage and the absence of significant primary opposition. Trader consensus assigns high implied probability to his reelection, consistent with historical patterns in similarly partisan districts. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unanticipated national Democratic surge could still narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in this environment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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