The district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+20 and consistent primary results where Democratic candidates captured the large majority of votes, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Aisha Wahab secured the seat via the August 2026 special election runoff after Eric Swalwell's resignation, advancing alongside fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez from the June top-two primary while Republican candidates remained in single digits. This pattern aligns with historical performance in the East Bay district. A late scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic nominee, or extreme national partisan shift could theoretically alter outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the structural margin in comparable seats.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоCA-14 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
CA-14 Победитель выборов в Палату представителей
$35,762 Объем
$35,762 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
97%
Республиканская партия
<1%
$35,762 Объем
$35,762 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Демократическая партия
$14,006 Объем
97%
Республиканская партия
$21,756 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+20 and consistent primary results where Democratic candidates captured the large majority of votes, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Aisha Wahab secured the seat via the August 2026 special election runoff after Eric Swalwell's resignation, advancing alongside fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez from the June top-two primary while Republican candidates remained in single digits. This pattern aligns with historical performance in the East Bay district. A late scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic nominee, or extreme national partisan shift could theoretically alter outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the structural margin in comparable seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Объем
$35,762Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+20 and consistent primary results where Democratic candidates captured the large majority of votes, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Aisha Wahab secured the seat via the August 2026 special election runoff after Eric Swalwell's resignation, advancing alongside fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez from the June top-two primary while Republican candidates remained in single digits. This pattern aligns with historical performance in the East Bay district. A late scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic nominee, or extreme national partisan shift could theoretically alter outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the structural margin in comparable seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$35,762Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...The district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+20 and consistent primary results where Democratic candidates captured the large majority of votes, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. Aisha Wahab secured the seat via the August 2026 special election runoff after Eric Swalwell's resignation, advancing alongside fellow Democrat Melissa Hernandez from the June top-two primary while Republican candidates remained in single digits. This pattern aligns with historical performance in the East Bay district. A late scandal, health issue affecting the Democratic nominee, or extreme national partisan shift could theoretically alter outcomes, though such factors have rarely overcome the structural margin in comparable seats.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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