US allies such as South Korea and Japan continue public debates and polling on nuclear options amid North Korea’s arsenal growth and questions over extended deterrence, yet no government has launched a weaponization program or fissile-material production timeline that could yield confirmed possession by December 2026. The July 2026 US-Saudi 123 Agreement advances civilian enrichment pathways under IAEA scrutiny, but analysts note these require years to reach weapons-grade material even absent safeguards. Trilateral US-Japan-South Korea cooperation on small modular reactors and nuclear-powered submarine propulsion remains focused on energy security and conventional defense rather than breakout. With roughly three months left before the market’s resolution date and longstanding NPT commitments intact, trader pricing at 94.6% for “No” reflects the absence of any verifiable political decision or technical milestone enabling rapid acquisition.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
5% вероятность
$212,871 Объем
$212,871 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
5% вероятность
$212,871 Объем
$212,871 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US allies such as South Korea and Japan continue public debates and polling on nuclear options amid North Korea’s arsenal growth and questions over extended deterrence, yet no government has launched a weaponization program or fissile-material production timeline that could yield confirmed possession by December 2026. The July 2026 US-Saudi 123 Agreement advances civilian enrichment pathways under IAEA scrutiny, but analysts note these require years to reach weapons-grade material even absent safeguards. Trilateral US-Japan-South Korea cooperation on small modular reactors and nuclear-powered submarine propulsion remains focused on energy security and conventional defense rather than breakout. With roughly three months left before the market’s resolution date and longstanding NPT commitments intact, trader pricing at 94.6% for “No” reflects the absence of any verifiable political decision or technical milestone enabling rapid acquisition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Объем
$212,871Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US allies such as South Korea and Japan continue public debates and polling on nuclear options amid North Korea’s arsenal growth and questions over extended deterrence, yet no government has launched a weaponization program or fissile-material production timeline that could yield confirmed possession by December 2026. The July 2026 US-Saudi 123 Agreement advances civilian enrichment pathways under IAEA scrutiny, but analysts note these require years to reach weapons-grade material even absent safeguards. Trilateral US-Japan-South Korea cooperation on small modular reactors and nuclear-powered submarine propulsion remains focused on energy security and conventional defense rather than breakout. With roughly three months left before the market’s resolution date and longstanding NPT commitments intact, trader pricing at 94.6% for “No” reflects the absence of any verifiable political decision or technical milestone enabling rapid acquisition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$212,871Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...US allies such as South Korea and Japan continue public debates and polling on nuclear options amid North Korea’s arsenal growth and questions over extended deterrence, yet no government has launched a weaponization program or fissile-material production timeline that could yield confirmed possession by December 2026. The July 2026 US-Saudi 123 Agreement advances civilian enrichment pathways under IAEA scrutiny, but analysts note these require years to reach weapons-grade material even absent safeguards. Trilateral US-Japan-South Korea cooperation on small modular reactors and nuclear-powered submarine propulsion remains focused on energy security and conventional defense rather than breakout. With roughly three months left before the market’s resolution date and longstanding NPT commitments intact, trader pricing at 94.6% for “No” reflects the absence of any verifiable political decision or technical milestone enabling rapid acquisition.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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