The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 US-Israel conflict, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and rapid succession by his son Mojtaba, has consolidated power around IRGC commanders and hardline security figures. Recent August appointments, such as Hossein Taeb to lead the Basij, signal intensified efforts to preempt unrest amid severe economic strain from sanctions and naval blockades, with inflation exceeding 80 percent and trade sharply reduced. No large-scale defections or renewed nationwide protests have materialized in the past month despite these pressures. With only 30 days until September 30, traders see minimal realistic pathways to regime collapse absent sudden military fractures or coordinated uprisings, though further economic deterioration or external escalation could still test stability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПадет ли иранский режим к 30 сентября?
Падет ли иранский режим к 30 сентября?
Да
1% вероятность
$1,803,120 Объем
$1,803,120 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
Да
1% вероятность
$1,803,120 Объем
$1,803,120 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 US-Israel conflict, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and rapid succession by his son Mojtaba, has consolidated power around IRGC commanders and hardline security figures. Recent August appointments, such as Hossein Taeb to lead the Basij, signal intensified efforts to preempt unrest amid severe economic strain from sanctions and naval blockades, with inflation exceeding 80 percent and trade sharply reduced. No large-scale defections or renewed nationwide protests have materialized in the past month despite these pressures. With only 30 days until September 30, traders see minimal realistic pathways to regime collapse absent sudden military fractures or coordinated uprisings, though further economic deterioration or external escalation could still test stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Объем
$1,803,120Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 US-Israel conflict, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and rapid succession by his son Mojtaba, has consolidated power around IRGC commanders and hardline security figures. Recent August appointments, such as Hossein Taeb to lead the Basij, signal intensified efforts to preempt unrest amid severe economic strain from sanctions and naval blockades, with inflation exceeding 80 percent and trade sharply reduced. No large-scale defections or renewed nationwide protests have materialized in the past month despite these pressures. With only 30 days until September 30, traders see minimal realistic pathways to regime collapse absent sudden military fractures or coordinated uprisings, though further economic deterioration or external escalation could still test stability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,803,120Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's survival through the 2026 US-Israel conflict, including the February assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and rapid succession by his son Mojtaba, has consolidated power around IRGC commanders and hardline security figures. Recent August appointments, such as Hossein Taeb to lead the Basij, signal intensified efforts to preempt unrest amid severe economic strain from sanctions and naval blockades, with inflation exceeding 80 percent and trade sharply reduced. No large-scale defections or renewed nationwide protests have materialized in the past month despite these pressures. With only 30 days until September 30, traders see minimal realistic pathways to regime collapse absent sudden military fractures or coordinated uprisings, though further economic deterioration or external escalation could still test stability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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