Hawkish communications from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, including his August 31 Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing the need to return inflation to the 2% target, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting to around 60%. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% since early 2026 amid solid GDP growth, stable unemployment, and persistent inflation driven by energy and supply shocks, traders are weighing the Fed's dual mandate against recent dissents favoring tightening. Key upcoming data releases on CPI, employment, and any further policy signals will determine whether probabilities shift toward action or a continued hold through year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$2,592,186 ปริมาณ
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
59%
October Meeting
66%
$2,592,186 ปริมาณ
September Meeting
$1,079,917 ปริมาณ
59%
October Meeting
$552,269 ปริมาณ
66%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hawkish communications from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, including his August 31 Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing the need to return inflation to the 2% target, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting to around 60%. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% since early 2026 amid solid GDP growth, stable unemployment, and persistent inflation driven by energy and supply shocks, traders are weighing the Fed's dual mandate against recent dissents favoring tightening. Key upcoming data releases on CPI, employment, and any further policy signals will determine whether probabilities shift toward action or a continued hold through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,592,186วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Hawkish communications from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, including his August 31 Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing the need to return inflation to the 2% target, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting to around 60%. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% since early 2026 amid solid GDP growth, stable unemployment, and persistent inflation driven by energy and supply shocks, traders are weighing the Fed's dual mandate against recent dissents favoring tightening. Key upcoming data releases on CPI, employment, and any further policy signals will determine whether probabilities shift toward action or a continued hold through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$2,592,186วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 29, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Hawkish communications from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, including his August 31 Jackson Hole remarks emphasizing the need to return inflation to the 2% target, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 16 FOMC meeting to around 60%. With the federal funds rate held at 3.50-3.75% since early 2026 amid solid GDP growth, stable unemployment, and persistent inflation driven by energy and supply shocks, traders are weighing the Fed's dual mandate against recent dissents favoring tightening. Key upcoming data releases on CPI, employment, and any further policy signals will determine whether probabilities shift toward action or a continued hold through year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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