Recent U.S. economic data have reinforced expectations for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, with the federal funds target range holding at 3.50-3.75% and the effective rate near 3.63%. August nonfarm payrolls surged to 162,000—well above consensus—while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1% and headline CPI held at 3.4% year-over-year, above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, combined with accelerating producer prices and resilient growth, have shifted market-implied odds sharply higher for a September 25-basis-point move. Traders view these factors as outweighing risks of a policy error, pricing in further tightening through year-end amid sticky inflation and solid labor conditions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วการปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐในปี 2026?
การปรับขึ้นอัตราดอกเบี้ยของธนาคารกลางสหรัฐในปี 2026?
ใช่
89% โอกาส
$9,093,162 ปริมาณ
$9,093,162 ปริมาณ
Dec 8, 2026
ใช่
89% โอกาส
$9,093,162 ปริมาณ
$9,093,162 ปริมาณ
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S. economic data have reinforced expectations for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, with the federal funds target range holding at 3.50-3.75% and the effective rate near 3.63%. August nonfarm payrolls surged to 162,000—well above consensus—while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1% and headline CPI held at 3.4% year-over-year, above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, combined with accelerating producer prices and resilient growth, have shifted market-implied odds sharply higher for a September 25-basis-point move. Traders view these factors as outweighing risks of a policy error, pricing in further tightening through year-end amid sticky inflation and solid labor conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,093,162วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S. economic data have reinforced expectations for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, with the federal funds target range holding at 3.50-3.75% and the effective rate near 3.63%. August nonfarm payrolls surged to 162,000—well above consensus—while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1% and headline CPI held at 3.4% year-over-year, above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, combined with accelerating producer prices and resilient growth, have shifted market-implied odds sharply higher for a September 25-basis-point move. Traders view these factors as outweighing risks of a policy error, pricing in further tightening through year-end amid sticky inflation and solid labor conditions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,093,162วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data have reinforced expectations for at least one Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, with the federal funds target range holding at 3.50-3.75% and the effective rate near 3.63%. August nonfarm payrolls surged to 162,000—well above consensus—while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.1% and headline CPI held at 3.4% year-over-year, above the 2% target. Hawkish communications from Chair Kevin Warsh, including at Jackson Hole, combined with accelerating producer prices and resilient growth, have shifted market-implied odds sharply higher for a September 25-basis-point move. Traders view these factors as outweighing risks of a policy error, pricing in further tightening through year-end amid sticky inflation and solid labor conditions.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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