Elevated inflation, running above 4% on headline PCE amid Middle East supply shocks and energy price pressures, remains the dominant factor shaping trader views on Federal Reserve policy through year-end. With the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and the labor market stable near 4.2% unemployment, the June SEP's upward revision to a 3.8% median 2026 rate projection and new Chair Kevin Warsh's removal of forward guidance have heightened uncertainty. Recent communications, including Governor Waller's September 3 remarks conditioning September action on incoming data, underscore the data-dependent path and split expectations between holds and measured hikes. This backdrop drives the closely contested Polymarket odds, where no single sequence exceeds 26% as traders weigh inflation persistence against resilient growth. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and subsequent CPI and employment releases.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Pause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 14%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
$11,713 ปริมาณ
$11,713 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
10%
Hike–Pause–Pause
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
14%
Pause–Pause–Pause
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
5%
Pause–Hike–Pause
8%
Other
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 26%
Hike–Pause–Pause 18%
Pause–Pause–Hike 14%
Hike–Hike–Pause 13%
$11,713 ปริมาณ
$11,713 ปริมาณ
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 ปริมาณ
10%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$499 ปริมาณ
18%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 ปริมาณ
6%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$429 ปริมาณ
13%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 ปริมาณ
14%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$9,180 ปริมาณ
26%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 ปริมาณ
5%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$336 ปริมาณ
8%
Other
$249 ปริมาณ
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation, running above 4% on headline PCE amid Middle East supply shocks and energy price pressures, remains the dominant factor shaping trader views on Federal Reserve policy through year-end. With the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and the labor market stable near 4.2% unemployment, the June SEP's upward revision to a 3.8% median 2026 rate projection and new Chair Kevin Warsh's removal of forward guidance have heightened uncertainty. Recent communications, including Governor Waller's September 3 remarks conditioning September action on incoming data, underscore the data-dependent path and split expectations between holds and measured hikes. This backdrop drives the closely contested Polymarket odds, where no single sequence exceeds 26% as traders weigh inflation persistence against resilient growth. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and subsequent CPI and employment releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,713วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation, running above 4% on headline PCE amid Middle East supply shocks and energy price pressures, remains the dominant factor shaping trader views on Federal Reserve policy through year-end. With the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and the labor market stable near 4.2% unemployment, the June SEP's upward revision to a 3.8% median 2026 rate projection and new Chair Kevin Warsh's removal of forward guidance have heightened uncertainty. Recent communications, including Governor Waller's September 3 remarks conditioning September action on incoming data, underscore the data-dependent path and split expectations between holds and measured hikes. This backdrop drives the closely contested Polymarket odds, where no single sequence exceeds 26% as traders weigh inflation persistence against resilient growth. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and subsequent CPI and employment releases.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$11,713วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 9, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation, running above 4% on headline PCE amid Middle East supply shocks and energy price pressures, remains the dominant factor shaping trader views on Federal Reserve policy through year-end. With the funds rate at 3.50-3.75% and the labor market stable near 4.2% unemployment, the June SEP's upward revision to a 3.8% median 2026 rate projection and new Chair Kevin Warsh's removal of forward guidance have heightened uncertainty. Recent communications, including Governor Waller's September 3 remarks conditioning September action on incoming data, underscore the data-dependent path and split expectations between holds and measured hikes. This backdrop drives the closely contested Polymarket odds, where no single sequence exceeds 26% as traders weigh inflation persistence against resilient growth. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and subsequent CPI and employment releases.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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