Traders see the closely matched 50.0% and 49.5% implied probabilities for Other versus Pause-Pause-Pause outcomes in the June-through-September FOMC decisions as reflecting persistent uncertainty over the policy path amid elevated inflation. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in both the June and July 2026 meetings, with the latter featuring a 9-3 vote and three dissenters favoring a 25-basis-point hike due to supply shocks and energy price pressures from Middle East conflict. Solid economic expansion, steady job gains, and strong productivity have supported the hold, yet minutes and projections indicate limited appetite for cuts before 2027 while highlighting risks of further tightening if inflation remains above the 2% target. The September meeting and upcoming data releases on inflation and labor conditions remain key swing factors in this balanced market-implied odds environment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Other 50%
Pause–Pause–Pause 50%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$834,477 ปริมาณ
$834,477 ปริมาณ
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
50%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
50%
Other 50%
Pause–Pause–Pause 50%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$834,477 ปริมาณ
$834,477 ปริมาณ
Sep 15, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$320,512 ปริมาณ
50%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$99,157 ปริมาณ
1%
Other
$358,931 ปริมาณ
50%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders see the closely matched 50.0% and 49.5% implied probabilities for Other versus Pause-Pause-Pause outcomes in the June-through-September FOMC decisions as reflecting persistent uncertainty over the policy path amid elevated inflation. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in both the June and July 2026 meetings, with the latter featuring a 9-3 vote and three dissenters favoring a 25-basis-point hike due to supply shocks and energy price pressures from Middle East conflict. Solid economic expansion, steady job gains, and strong productivity have supported the hold, yet minutes and projections indicate limited appetite for cuts before 2027 while highlighting risks of further tightening if inflation remains above the 2% target. The September meeting and upcoming data releases on inflation and labor conditions remain key swing factors in this balanced market-implied odds environment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$834,477วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders see the closely matched 50.0% and 49.5% implied probabilities for Other versus Pause-Pause-Pause outcomes in the June-through-September FOMC decisions as reflecting persistent uncertainty over the policy path amid elevated inflation. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in both the June and July 2026 meetings, with the latter featuring a 9-3 vote and three dissenters favoring a 25-basis-point hike due to supply shocks and energy price pressures from Middle East conflict. Solid economic expansion, steady job gains, and strong productivity have supported the hold, yet minutes and projections indicate limited appetite for cuts before 2027 while highlighting risks of further tightening if inflation remains above the 2% target. The September meeting and upcoming data releases on inflation and labor conditions remain key swing factors in this balanced market-implied odds environment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$834,477วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the closely matched 50.0% and 49.5% implied probabilities for Other versus Pause-Pause-Pause outcomes in the June-through-September FOMC decisions as reflecting persistent uncertainty over the policy path amid elevated inflation. The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% in both the June and July 2026 meetings, with the latter featuring a 9-3 vote and three dissenters favoring a 25-basis-point hike due to supply shocks and energy price pressures from Middle East conflict. Solid economic expansion, steady job gains, and strong productivity have supported the hold, yet minutes and projections indicate limited appetite for cuts before 2027 while highlighting risks of further tightening if inflation remains above the 2% target. The September meeting and upcoming data releases on inflation and labor conditions remain key swing factors in this balanced market-implied odds environment.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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