Traders assign a 92.7% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 primarily because such megathrust events remain exceptionally rare, with global recurrence intervals typically spanning centuries on major subduction zones. USGS data confirm only a handful of M9+ quakes since 1900, the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku event, while 2025–2026 activity has peaked at an M8.8 in Kamchatka and several M7.7–7.5 events without approaching the threshold. The remaining window to December 31, 2026, is brief, and current seismic monitoring shows no indicators of imminent full-margin rupture. A realistic challenge would require rapid escalation in strain accumulation along zones like the Nankai Trough or Cascadia, though historical patterns and model consensus indicate low odds of crossing into M9 territory this quickly.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
7% 概率
$312,346 交易量
$312,346 交易量
2026-12-31
是
7% 概率
$312,346 交易量
$312,346 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 92.7% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 primarily because such megathrust events remain exceptionally rare, with global recurrence intervals typically spanning centuries on major subduction zones. USGS data confirm only a handful of M9+ quakes since 1900, the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku event, while 2025–2026 activity has peaked at an M8.8 in Kamchatka and several M7.7–7.5 events without approaching the threshold. The remaining window to December 31, 2026, is brief, and current seismic monitoring shows no indicators of imminent full-margin rupture. A realistic challenge would require rapid escalation in strain accumulation along zones like the Nankai Trough or Cascadia, though historical patterns and model consensus indicate low odds of crossing into M9 territory this quickly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
交易量
$312,346结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Traders assign a 92.7% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 primarily because such megathrust events remain exceptionally rare, with global recurrence intervals typically spanning centuries on major subduction zones. USGS data confirm only a handful of M9+ quakes since 1900, the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku event, while 2025–2026 activity has peaked at an M8.8 in Kamchatka and several M7.7–7.5 events without approaching the threshold. The remaining window to December 31, 2026, is brief, and current seismic monitoring shows no indicators of imminent full-margin rupture. A realistic challenge would require rapid escalation in strain accumulation along zones like the Nankai Trough or Cascadia, though historical patterns and model consensus indicate low odds of crossing into M9 territory this quickly.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$312,346结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETTraders assign a 92.7% implied probability to no magnitude 9.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 primarily because such megathrust events remain exceptionally rare, with global recurrence intervals typically spanning centuries on major subduction zones. USGS data confirm only a handful of M9+ quakes since 1900, the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku event, while 2025–2026 activity has peaked at an M8.8 in Kamchatka and several M7.7–7.5 events without approaching the threshold. The remaining window to December 31, 2026, is brief, and current seismic monitoring shows no indicators of imminent full-margin rupture. A realistic challenge would require rapid escalation in strain accumulation along zones like the Nankai Trough or Cascadia, though historical patterns and model consensus indicate low odds of crossing into M9 territory this quickly.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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