Leanne Caron holds a modest lead in trader pricing at 52.5% for the October 26, 2026 Guelph mayoral election, ahead of fellow incumbent councillor Ken Yee Chew at 36%, with the remaining four candidates at single digits or lower. The race stays close because both frontrunners bring comparable municipal experience after Mayor Cam Guthrie’s decision not to seek a fourth term, and no public polls have clarified voter preferences since nominations closed August 21. Key issues such as housing affordability, infrastructure, and local governance trust remain central, yet campaigns are still in early stages with limited differentiation. Upcoming candidate forums, endorsements, or any release of polling data before advance voting begins October 10 could shift probabilities by highlighting platforms or consolidating support among the six-person field.