Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic voting patterns in federal contests and his established record since 2009. Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary against limited opposition, while Republican state Senator David Brock Smith emerged from a crowded field but faces structural headwinds in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002. Forecasting models rate the contest as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting voter registration advantages and fundraising disparities. Late developments such as a significant national political realignment, unforeseen personal or legal issues for the incumbent, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though such factors remain low-probability based on current evidence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-02
杰夫·默克利（民主党）
97%
大卫·布罗克·史密斯（共和党）
2%
最新
最新
2026-11-02
杰夫·默克利（民主党）
$3,658 交易量
97%
大卫·布罗克·史密斯（共和党）
$3,076 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic voting patterns in federal contests and his established record since 2009. Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary against limited opposition, while Republican state Senator David Brock Smith emerged from a crowded field but faces structural headwinds in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002. Forecasting models rate the contest as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting voter registration advantages and fundraising disparities. Late developments such as a significant national political realignment, unforeseen personal or legal issues for the incumbent, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though such factors remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市场开放时间： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
交易量
$6,735结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic voting patterns in federal contests and his established record since 2009. Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary against limited opposition, while Republican state Senator David Brock Smith emerged from a crowded field but faces structural headwinds in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002. Forecasting models rate the contest as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting voter registration advantages and fundraising disparities. Late developments such as a significant national political realignment, unforeseen personal or legal issues for the incumbent, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though such factors remain low-probability based on current evidence.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$6,735结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETIncumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in the 2026 Oregon Senate race due to the state's consistent Democratic voting patterns in federal contests and his established record since 2009. Merkley secured his party's nomination with over 93 percent in the May primary against limited opposition, while Republican state Senator David Brock Smith emerged from a crowded field but faces structural headwinds in a state that has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 2002. Forecasting models rate the contest as safe or solid Democratic, reflecting voter registration advantages and fundraising disparities. Late developments such as a significant national political realignment, unforeseen personal or legal issues for the incumbent, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though such factors remain low-probability based on current evidence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题