Incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar holds an 82.5% implied probability in the TX-28 general election due to his long tenure representing South Texas, established record securing federal appropriations, and strong local name recognition in Webb and Hidalgo counties. A December 2025 presidential pardon resolved prior federal charges, removing a key vulnerability and prompting forecasters to shift the race from toss-up to lean Democratic despite mid-decade redistricting that made the district more Republican-leaning on presidential voting. Republican challenger Tano Tijerina, a former Democrat and Webb County judge who switched parties and secured the GOP nomination plus a Trump endorsement, trails at 15% amid lower statewide visibility and Cuellar’s demonstrated crossover support among Trump voters in recent polling. Both candidates emphasize federal funding delivery and border priorities ahead of the November 3 vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
亨利·奎利亚尔（民主党）
83%
塔诺·蒂赫里纳（共和党）
15%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
亨利·奎利亚尔（民主党）
$4,410 交易量
83%
塔诺·蒂赫里纳（共和党）
$5,538 交易量
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar holds an 82.5% implied probability in the TX-28 general election due to his long tenure representing South Texas, established record securing federal appropriations, and strong local name recognition in Webb and Hidalgo counties. A December 2025 presidential pardon resolved prior federal charges, removing a key vulnerability and prompting forecasters to shift the race from toss-up to lean Democratic despite mid-decade redistricting that made the district more Republican-leaning on presidential voting. Republican challenger Tano Tijerina, a former Democrat and Webb County judge who switched parties and secured the GOP nomination plus a Trump endorsement, trails at 15% amid lower statewide visibility and Cuellar’s demonstrated crossover support among Trump voters in recent polling. Both candidates emphasize federal funding delivery and border priorities ahead of the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
交易量
$9,948结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar holds an 82.5% implied probability in the TX-28 general election due to his long tenure representing South Texas, established record securing federal appropriations, and strong local name recognition in Webb and Hidalgo counties. A December 2025 presidential pardon resolved prior federal charges, removing a key vulnerability and prompting forecasters to shift the race from toss-up to lean Democratic despite mid-decade redistricting that made the district more Republican-leaning on presidential voting. Republican challenger Tano Tijerina, a former Democrat and Webb County judge who switched parties and secured the GOP nomination plus a Trump endorsement, trails at 15% amid lower statewide visibility and Cuellar’s demonstrated crossover support among Trump voters in recent polling. Both candidates emphasize federal funding delivery and border priorities ahead of the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$9,948结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETIncumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar holds an 82.5% implied probability in the TX-28 general election due to his long tenure representing South Texas, established record securing federal appropriations, and strong local name recognition in Webb and Hidalgo counties. A December 2025 presidential pardon resolved prior federal charges, removing a key vulnerability and prompting forecasters to shift the race from toss-up to lean Democratic despite mid-decade redistricting that made the district more Republican-leaning on presidential voting. Republican challenger Tano Tijerina, a former Democrat and Webb County judge who switched parties and secured the GOP nomination plus a Trump endorsement, trails at 15% amid lower statewide visibility and Cuellar’s demonstrated crossover support among Trump voters in recent polling. Both candidates emphasize federal funding delivery and border priorities ahead of the November 3 vote.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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