Recent polls from late August 2026 establish Dr. Furlan (PSD), the former Macapá mayor, as the clear leader in the Amapá gubernatorial race with 55–59% support against incumbent Clécio Luís (União Brasil) at 32–35%, while minor candidates register under 1%. This positioning reflects strong voter preference across demographic groups, lower rejection ratings for Furlan, and his status as an alternative to the Alcolumbre-aligned group backing re-election. Traders assign Dr. Furlan a 93% implied probability of victory, consistent with polling trends indicating a potential first-round decision on October 4. Developments capable of altering this outlook include major shifts in undecided voters, unexpected campaign events before the October 25 runoff window, or unforeseen changes in coalition alignments that consolidate opposition support.