Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds an 88.5% implied probability as the Sergipe governor election winner, reflecting consistent leads in recent polling. A Real Time Big Data survey conducted August 31–September 3 showed him at 45% in the stimulated first-round scenario, ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 37% and Ricardo Marques (PL) at 9%, with other registered candidates such as Emanuel Cacho, Dr. Helton, and Taty Cristina de Jesus registering minimal support. Earlier Quaest and IFP polls from late August similarly placed Fábio in the low-to-mid 40s percent range against Valmir in the high 20s, underscoring his structural advantages as the sitting governor ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders price the main challenger at just 11.5%, consistent with the wide gap in voter intention data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertFábio 89%
Valmir de Francisquinho 12%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$18,711 Vol.
$18,711 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Fábio
89%
Valmir de Francisquinho
12%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
1%
Emanuel Cacho
<1%
Dr. Helton
<1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 89%
Valmir de Francisquinho 12%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$18,711 Vol.
$18,711 Vol.
4. Okt. 2026
Fábio
$15,381 Vol.
89%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$1,250 Vol.
12%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$537 Vol.
1%
Emanuel Cacho
$518 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Helton
$582 Vol.
<1%
Ricardo Marques
$443 Vol.
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds an 88.5% implied probability as the Sergipe governor election winner, reflecting consistent leads in recent polling. A Real Time Big Data survey conducted August 31–September 3 showed him at 45% in the stimulated first-round scenario, ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 37% and Ricardo Marques (PL) at 9%, with other registered candidates such as Emanuel Cacho, Dr. Helton, and Taty Cristina de Jesus registering minimal support. Earlier Quaest and IFP polls from late August similarly placed Fábio in the low-to-mid 40s percent range against Valmir in the high 20s, underscoring his structural advantages as the sitting governor ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders price the main challenger at just 11.5%, consistent with the wide gap in voter intention data.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volumen
$18,711Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds an 88.5% implied probability as the Sergipe governor election winner, reflecting consistent leads in recent polling. A Real Time Big Data survey conducted August 31–September 3 showed him at 45% in the stimulated first-round scenario, ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 37% and Ricardo Marques (PL) at 9%, with other registered candidates such as Emanuel Cacho, Dr. Helton, and Taty Cristina de Jesus registering minimal support. Earlier Quaest and IFP polls from late August similarly placed Fábio in the low-to-mid 40s percent range against Valmir in the high 20s, underscoring his structural advantages as the sitting governor ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders price the main challenger at just 11.5%, consistent with the wide gap in voter intention data.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$18,711Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds an 88.5% implied probability as the Sergipe governor election winner, reflecting consistent leads in recent polling. A Real Time Big Data survey conducted August 31–September 3 showed him at 45% in the stimulated first-round scenario, ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) at 37% and Ricardo Marques (PL) at 9%, with other registered candidates such as Emanuel Cacho, Dr. Helton, and Taty Cristina de Jesus registering minimal support. Earlier Quaest and IFP polls from late August similarly placed Fábio in the low-to-mid 40s percent range against Valmir in the high 20s, underscoring his structural advantages as the sitting governor ahead of the October 4 first round. Traders price the main challenger at just 11.5%, consistent with the wide gap in voter intention data.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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