Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford benefits from Arkansas’s 1st district strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+23 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. The northeastern rural and agricultural area has delivered Republican victories exceeding 70 percent in recent House elections, and forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Crawford faces Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green after both parties’ March primaries were canceled, leaving limited opposition infrastructure and fundraising. No major polling shifts or controversies have emerged since candidate filing closed. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or an unusually large national Democratic wave that compresses margins in deep-red territory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAR-01 House Election Winner
AR-01 House Election Winner
$26,556 Vol.
$26,556 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
1%
$26,556 Vol.
$26,556 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$16,297 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$10,259 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford benefits from Arkansas’s 1st district strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+23 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. The northeastern rural and agricultural area has delivered Republican victories exceeding 70 percent in recent House elections, and forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Crawford faces Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green after both parties’ March primaries were canceled, leaving limited opposition infrastructure and fundraising. No major polling shifts or controversies have emerged since candidate filing closed. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or an unusually large national Democratic wave that compresses margins in deep-red territory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$26,556End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford benefits from Arkansas’s 1st district strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+23 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. The northeastern rural and agricultural area has delivered Republican victories exceeding 70 percent in recent House elections, and forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Crawford faces Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green after both parties’ March primaries were canceled, leaving limited opposition infrastructure and fundraising. No major polling shifts or controversies have emerged since candidate filing closed. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or an unusually large national Democratic wave that compresses margins in deep-red territory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$26,556End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Rick Crawford benefits from Arkansas’s 1st district strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+23 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles. The northeastern rural and agricultural area has delivered Republican victories exceeding 70 percent in recent House elections, and forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican. Crawford faces Democrat Terri Yarbrough Green after both parties’ March primaries were canceled, leaving limited opposition infrastructure and fundraising. No major polling shifts or controversies have emerged since candidate filing closed. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include late-breaking scandals, health developments affecting the incumbent, or an unusually large national Democratic wave that compresses margins in deep-red territory.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions