Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a commanding position in Florida's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in the market's 89% implied probability. The solidly Republican-leaning district, which he carried by 14.5 points in 2024, combined with his unopposed primary, extensive fundraising exceeding $2 million, and endorsements from key groups, underpins trader consensus. Democratic nominee LaShonda Holloway, who secured her party's nod in the August 18 primary with 57% of the vote, faces structural challenges including significantly lower resources and the district's partisan baseline. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Republican, with no recent developments altering the competitive outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFL-04 House Election Winner
FL-04 House Election Winner
$27,420 Vol.
$27,420 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Aaron Bean (R)
89%
LaShonda Holloway (D)
11%
$27,420 Vol.
$27,420 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Aaron Bean (R)
$16,722 Vol.
89%
LaShonda Holloway (D)
$10,698 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a commanding position in Florida's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in the market's 89% implied probability. The solidly Republican-leaning district, which he carried by 14.5 points in 2024, combined with his unopposed primary, extensive fundraising exceeding $2 million, and endorsements from key groups, underpins trader consensus. Democratic nominee LaShonda Holloway, who secured her party's nod in the August 18 primary with 57% of the vote, faces structural challenges including significantly lower resources and the district's partisan baseline. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Republican, with no recent developments altering the competitive outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ET
Volume
$27,420End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a commanding position in Florida's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in the market's 89% implied probability. The solidly Republican-leaning district, which he carried by 14.5 points in 2024, combined with his unopposed primary, extensive fundraising exceeding $2 million, and endorsements from key groups, underpins trader consensus. Democratic nominee LaShonda Holloway, who secured her party's nod in the August 18 primary with 57% of the vote, faces structural challenges including significantly lower resources and the district's partisan baseline. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Republican, with no recent developments altering the competitive outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,420End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 10:37 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Aaron Bean holds a commanding position in Florida's 4th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflected in the market's 89% implied probability. The solidly Republican-leaning district, which he carried by 14.5 points in 2024, combined with his unopposed primary, extensive fundraising exceeding $2 million, and endorsements from key groups, underpins trader consensus. Democratic nominee LaShonda Holloway, who secured her party's nod in the August 18 primary with 57% of the vote, faces structural challenges including significantly lower resources and the district's partisan baseline. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Republican, with no recent developments altering the competitive outlook.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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