Recent short-term forecasts from meteorological models place Zhengzhou's overnight low near 20–22 °C on September 1 under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow, consistent with early-autumn climatology where radiative cooling strengthens after peak summer heating. Trader consensus nonetheless assigns the highest implied probability (48.5 %) to 15 °C or below, likely reflecting uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, potential model spread on minimum temperatures, and the risk of localized cooling under calm conditions. Mid-range outcomes around 18–22 °C cluster near 25 %, while warmer scenarios above 25 °C sit at 30 %, indicating the market prices in modest downside risk to official guidance as the final observational window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Zhengzhou on September 1?
Lowest temperature in Zhengzhou on September 1?
16°C 49%
17°C 49%
23°C 40%
18°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
15°C or below
-
16°C
49%
17°C
49%
18°C
26%
19°C
26%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
40%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
1%
16°C 49%
17°C 49%
23°C 40%
18°C 26%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
15°C or below
$5 Vol.
-
16°C
$5 Vol.
49%
17°C
$5 Vol.
49%
18°C
$0 Vol.
26%
19°C
$0 Vol.
26%
20°C
$0 Vol.
26%
21°C
$0 Vol.
26%
22°C
$0 Vol.
26%
23°C
$20 Vol.
40%
24°C
$20 Vol.
1%
25°C or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from meteorological models place Zhengzhou's overnight low near 20–22 °C on September 1 under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow, consistent with early-autumn climatology where radiative cooling strengthens after peak summer heating. Trader consensus nonetheless assigns the highest implied probability (48.5 %) to 15 °C or below, likely reflecting uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, potential model spread on minimum temperatures, and the risk of localized cooling under calm conditions. Mid-range outcomes around 18–22 °C cluster near 25 %, while warmer scenarios above 25 °C sit at 30 %, indicating the market prices in modest downside risk to official guidance as the final observational window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 31, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$60End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecasts from meteorological models place Zhengzhou's overnight low near 20–22 °C on September 1 under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow, consistent with early-autumn climatology where radiative cooling strengthens after peak summer heating. Trader consensus nonetheless assigns the highest implied probability (48.5 %) to 15 °C or below, likely reflecting uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, potential model spread on minimum temperatures, and the risk of localized cooling under calm conditions. Mid-range outcomes around 18–22 °C cluster near 25 %, while warmer scenarios above 25 °C sit at 30 %, indicating the market prices in modest downside risk to official guidance as the final observational window closes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$60End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-term forecasts from meteorological models place Zhengzhou's overnight low near 20–22 °C on September 1 under mostly clear skies and light northeasterly flow, consistent with early-autumn climatology where radiative cooling strengthens after peak summer heating. Trader consensus nonetheless assigns the highest implied probability (48.5 %) to 15 °C or below, likely reflecting uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing, potential model spread on minimum temperatures, and the risk of localized cooling under calm conditions. Mid-range outcomes around 18–22 °C cluster near 25 %, while warmer scenarios above 25 °C sit at 30 %, indicating the market prices in modest downside risk to official guidance as the final observational window closes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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