Incumbent Democrat Jamie Raskin secured the Democratic nomination for Maryland’s 8th Congressional District with over 92 percent of the primary vote on June 23, 2026, facing only token opposition. The district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+30 and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Raskin’s substantial fundraising advantage and the Republican nominee’s limited resources further reinforce trader consensus ahead of the November 3 general election. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in this D.C.-suburban district, where Democrats have held the seat by wide margins in recent cycles. Potential shifts could stem from late-breaking developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though no such factors have emerged since the primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-08 House Election Winner
MD-08 House Election Winner
$27,422 Vol.
$27,422 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
4%
$27,422 Vol.
$27,422 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$18,895 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$8,528 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jamie Raskin secured the Democratic nomination for Maryland’s 8th Congressional District with over 92 percent of the primary vote on June 23, 2026, facing only token opposition. The district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+30 and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Raskin’s substantial fundraising advantage and the Republican nominee’s limited resources further reinforce trader consensus ahead of the November 3 general election. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in this D.C.-suburban district, where Democrats have held the seat by wide margins in recent cycles. Potential shifts could stem from late-breaking developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though no such factors have emerged since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$27,422End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jamie Raskin secured the Democratic nomination for Maryland’s 8th Congressional District with over 92 percent of the primary vote on June 23, 2026, facing only token opposition. The district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+30 and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Raskin’s substantial fundraising advantage and the Republican nominee’s limited resources further reinforce trader consensus ahead of the November 3 general election. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in this D.C.-suburban district, where Democrats have held the seat by wide margins in recent cycles. Potential shifts could stem from late-breaking developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though no such factors have emerged since the primaries.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$27,422End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jamie Raskin secured the Democratic nomination for Maryland’s 8th Congressional District with over 92 percent of the primary vote on June 23, 2026, facing only token opposition. The district’s strong Democratic tilt, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+30 and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee. Raskin’s substantial fundraising advantage and the Republican nominee’s limited resources further reinforce trader consensus ahead of the November 3 general election. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented swing in this D.C.-suburban district, where Democrats have held the seat by wide margins in recent cycles. Potential shifts could stem from late-breaking developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, though no such factors have emerged since the primaries.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions