Trader consensus currently assigns OpenAI the highest implied probability at 54.5% for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, driven by its demonstrated progress in large language model agents that integrate advanced tool use, multi-step reasoning, and platform APIs. Close clustering around 50% for several other entrants and lower shares for Moonshot (14%) and Anthropic (12.5%) highlight a fragmented field where competitive positioning hinges on verifiable capability benchmarks, developer adoption, and release cadence rather than marketing alone. Recent model updates and ecosystem integrations have strengthened OpenAI’s edge, yet the tight spread underscores uncertainty around rapid iteration from rivals and potential shifts from upcoming evaluations or hardware partnerships before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 55%
Moonshot 13%
Anthropic 12%
SpaceXAI 9.2%
$26,974 Vol.
$26,974 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
55%
Moonshot
13%
Anthropic
12%
SpaceXAI
9%
DeepSeek
4%
Amazon
4%
3%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meta
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 55%
Moonshot 13%
Anthropic 12%
SpaceXAI 9.2%
$26,974 Vol.
$26,974 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
$10,410 Vol.
55%
Moonshot
$6,483 Vol.
13%
Anthropic
$1,866 Vol.
12%
SpaceXAI
$565 Vol.
9%
DeepSeek
$526 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$534 Vol.
4%
$1,462 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$483 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$489 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$480 Vol.
1%
Meta
$443 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$488 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$390 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$523 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$526 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$461 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$444 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$400 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus currently assigns OpenAI the highest implied probability at 54.5% for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, driven by its demonstrated progress in large language model agents that integrate advanced tool use, multi-step reasoning, and platform APIs. Close clustering around 50% for several other entrants and lower shares for Moonshot (14%) and Anthropic (12.5%) highlight a fragmented field where competitive positioning hinges on verifiable capability benchmarks, developer adoption, and release cadence rather than marketing alone. Recent model updates and ecosystem integrations have strengthened OpenAI’s edge, yet the tight spread underscores uncertainty around rapid iteration from rivals and potential shifts from upcoming evaluations or hardware partnerships before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volume
$26,974End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus currently assigns OpenAI the highest implied probability at 54.5% for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, driven by its demonstrated progress in large language model agents that integrate advanced tool use, multi-step reasoning, and platform APIs. Close clustering around 50% for several other entrants and lower shares for Moonshot (14%) and Anthropic (12.5%) highlight a fragmented field where competitive positioning hinges on verifiable capability benchmarks, developer adoption, and release cadence rather than marketing alone. Recent model updates and ecosystem integrations have strengthened OpenAI’s edge, yet the tight spread underscores uncertainty around rapid iteration from rivals and potential shifts from upcoming evaluations or hardware partnerships before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$26,974End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus currently assigns OpenAI the highest implied probability at 54.5% for second-best AI agent lab by end of October, driven by its demonstrated progress in large language model agents that integrate advanced tool use, multi-step reasoning, and platform APIs. Close clustering around 50% for several other entrants and lower shares for Moonshot (14%) and Anthropic (12.5%) highlight a fragmented field where competitive positioning hinges on verifiable capability benchmarks, developer adoption, and release cadence rather than marketing alone. Recent model updates and ecosystem integrations have strengthened OpenAI’s edge, yet the tight spread underscores uncertainty around rapid iteration from rivals and potential shifts from upcoming evaluations or hardware partnerships before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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