**Recent US Drought Monitor data valid through August 25, 2026, show exceptional (D4) drought covering roughly 1.5–1.75% of the contiguous United States, concentrated in a handful of states.** Persistent high-pressure ridging and above-normal temperatures across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and portions of the Intermountain West have driven rapid degradation, expanding or intensifying D4 in Idaho (notably northeastern areas), Arkansas, and Mississippi while smaller pockets persist in Colorado and adjacent states. Monsoonal moisture brought localized relief and one-category improvements in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. The next USDM map, incorporating data through early September and released around September 3, will determine the official week-of-September-1 classifications used for market resolution. Traders should monitor short-term precipitation forecasts and any late-August model runs that could shift D3/D4 boundaries before the data cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedExceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 1, 2026
Exceptional drought (D4) by state — week of September 1, 2026
$22,244 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
Alabama
1%
Arizona
4%
Arkansas
98%
California
2%
Colorado
94%
Delaware
5%
Florida
11%
Georgia
5%
Idaho
93%
Illinois
4%
Indiana
4%
Iowa
4%
Kansas
5%
Kentucky
4%
Louisiana
10%
Maryland
4%
Minnesota
6%
Mississippi
81%
Missouri
1%
Montana
4%
Nebraska
94%
Nevada
75%
New Jersey
4%
New Mexico
94%
North Carolina
75%
North Dakota
6%
Ohio
4%
Oklahoma
95%
Oregon
93%
Pennsylvania
1%
South Carolina
8%
South Dakota
8%
Tennessee
1%
Texas
99%
Utah
94%
Virginia
2%
Washington
15%
West Virginia
4%
Wisconsin
12%
Wyoming
17%
$22,244 Vol.
Alabama
$693 Vol.
1%
Arizona
$1,049 Vol.
4%
Arkansas
$2,727 Vol.
98%
California
$598 Vol.
2%
Colorado
$971 Vol.
94%
Delaware
$0 Vol.
5%
Florida
$1,125 Vol.
11%
Georgia
$818 Vol.
5%
Idaho
$1,882 Vol.
93%
Illinois
$0 Vol.
4%
Indiana
$0 Vol.
4%
Iowa
$0 Vol.
4%
Kansas
$511 Vol.
5%
Kentucky
$0 Vol.
4%
Louisiana
$322 Vol.
10%
Maryland
$0 Vol.
4%
Minnesota
$598 Vol.
6%
Mississippi
$160 Vol.
81%
Missouri
$1,572 Vol.
1%
Montana
$1,233 Vol.
4%
Nebraska
$0 Vol.
94%
Nevada
$768 Vol.
75%
New Jersey
$0 Vol.
4%
New Mexico
$438 Vol.
94%
North Carolina
$454 Vol.
75%
North Dakota
$169 Vol.
6%
Ohio
$0 Vol.
4%
Oklahoma
$874 Vol.
95%
Oregon
$0 Vol.
93%
Pennsylvania
$767 Vol.
1%
South Carolina
$194 Vol.
8%
South Dakota
$444 Vol.
8%
Tennessee
$412 Vol.
1%
Texas
$1,024 Vol.
99%
Utah
$598 Vol.
94%
Virginia
$260 Vol.
2%
Washington
$50 Vol.
15%
West Virginia
$323 Vol.
4%
Wisconsin
$706 Vol.
12%
Wyoming
$504 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alabama has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Alabama carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Alabama market and make no claim about Alabama's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arizona has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Arizona carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Arizona market and make no claim about Arizona's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arkansas has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Arkansas carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Arkansas market and make no claim about Arkansas's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if California has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
California carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no California market and make no claim about California's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Colorado has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Colorado carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Colorado market and make no claim about Colorado's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Delaware has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Delaware carries a market in June through October, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Delaware market and make no claim about Delaware's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Florida has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Florida carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Florida market and make no claim about Florida's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Georgia has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Georgia carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Georgia market and make no claim about Georgia's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Idaho has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Idaho carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Idaho market and make no claim about Idaho's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Illinois has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Illinois carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Illinois market and make no claim about Illinois's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Indiana has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Indiana carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Indiana market and make no claim about Indiana's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iowa has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Iowa carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Iowa market and make no claim about Iowa's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kansas has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Kansas carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Kansas market and make no claim about Kansas's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kentucky has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Kentucky carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Kentucky market and make no claim about Kentucky's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Louisiana has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Louisiana carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Louisiana market and make no claim about Louisiana's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Maryland has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Maryland carries a market in June through October, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Maryland market and make no claim about Maryland's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Minnesota has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Minnesota carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Minnesota market and make no claim about Minnesota's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mississippi has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Mississippi carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Mississippi market and make no claim about Mississippi's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Missouri carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Missouri market and make no claim about Missouri's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Montana has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Montana carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Montana market and make no claim about Montana's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nebraska has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Nebraska carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Nebraska market and make no claim about Nebraska's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nevada has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Nevada carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Nevada market and make no claim about Nevada's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if New Jersey has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
New Jersey carries a market in June through October, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no New Jersey market and make no claim about New Jersey's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if New Mexico has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
New Mexico carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no New Mexico market and make no claim about New Mexico's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Carolina has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
North Carolina carries a market in June through October, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no North Carolina market and make no claim about North Carolina's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Dakota has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
North Dakota carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no North Dakota market and make no claim about North Dakota's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ohio has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Ohio carries a market in June through October, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Ohio market and make no claim about Ohio's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Oklahoma has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Oklahoma carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Oklahoma market and make no claim about Oklahoma's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Oregon has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Oregon carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Oregon market and make no claim about Oregon's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pennsylvania has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Pennsylvania carries a market in June through October, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Pennsylvania market and make no claim about Pennsylvania's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if South Carolina has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
South Carolina carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no South Carolina market and make no claim about South Carolina's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if South Dakota has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
South Dakota carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no South Dakota market and make no claim about South Dakota's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tennessee has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Tennessee carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Tennessee market and make no claim about Tennessee's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Texas has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Texas carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Texas market and make no claim about Texas's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Utah has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Utah carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Utah market and make no claim about Utah's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Virginia has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Virginia carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Virginia market and make no claim about Virginia's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Washington has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Washington carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Washington market and make no claim about Washington's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if West Virginia has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
West Virginia carries a market in June through October, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no West Virginia market and make no claim about West Virginia's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Wisconsin has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Wisconsin carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Wisconsin market and make no claim about Wisconsin's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Wyoming has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Wyoming carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Wyoming market and make no claim about Wyoming's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Recent US Drought Monitor data valid through August 25, 2026, show exceptional (D4) drought covering roughly 1.5–1.75% of the contiguous United States, concentrated in a handful of states.** Persistent high-pressure ridging and above-normal temperatures across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and portions of the Intermountain West have driven rapid degradation, expanding or intensifying D4 in Idaho (notably northeastern areas), Arkansas, and Mississippi while smaller pockets persist in Colorado and adjacent states. Monsoonal moisture brought localized relief and one-category improvements in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. The next USDM map, incorporating data through early September and released around September 3, will determine the official week-of-September-1 classifications used for market resolution. Traders should monitor short-term precipitation forecasts and any late-August model runs that could shift D3/D4 boundaries before the data cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alabama has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Alabama carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Alabama market and make no claim about Alabama's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Alabama carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Alabama market and make no claim about Alabama's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
Volume
$22,244End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alabama has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Alabama carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Alabama market and make no claim about Alabama's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arizona has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Arizona carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Arizona market and make no claim about Arizona's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arkansas has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Arkansas carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Arkansas market and make no claim about Arkansas's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if California has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
California carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no California market and make no claim about California's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Colorado has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Colorado carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Colorado market and make no claim about Colorado's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Delaware has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Delaware carries a market in June through October, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Delaware market and make no claim about Delaware's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Florida has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Florida carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Florida market and make no claim about Florida's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Georgia has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Georgia carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Georgia market and make no claim about Georgia's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Idaho has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Idaho carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Idaho market and make no claim about Idaho's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Illinois has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Illinois carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Illinois market and make no claim about Illinois's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Indiana has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Indiana carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Indiana market and make no claim about Indiana's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iowa has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Iowa carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Iowa market and make no claim about Iowa's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kansas has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Kansas carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Kansas market and make no claim about Kansas's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kentucky has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Kentucky carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Kentucky market and make no claim about Kentucky's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Louisiana has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Louisiana carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Louisiana market and make no claim about Louisiana's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Maryland has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Maryland carries a market in June through October, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Maryland market and make no claim about Maryland's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Minnesota has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Minnesota carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Minnesota market and make no claim about Minnesota's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mississippi has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Mississippi carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Mississippi market and make no claim about Mississippi's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Missouri has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Missouri carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Missouri market and make no claim about Missouri's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Montana has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Montana carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Montana market and make no claim about Montana's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nebraska has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Nebraska carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Nebraska market and make no claim about Nebraska's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nevada has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Nevada carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Nevada market and make no claim about Nevada's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if New Jersey has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
New Jersey carries a market in June through October, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no New Jersey market and make no claim about New Jersey's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if New Mexico has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
New Mexico carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no New Mexico market and make no claim about New Mexico's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Carolina has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
North Carolina carries a market in June through October, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no North Carolina market and make no claim about North Carolina's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Dakota has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
North Dakota carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no North Dakota market and make no claim about North Dakota's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ohio has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Ohio carries a market in June through October, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Ohio market and make no claim about Ohio's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Oklahoma has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Oklahoma carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Oklahoma market and make no claim about Oklahoma's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Oregon has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Oregon carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Oregon market and make no claim about Oregon's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pennsylvania has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Pennsylvania carries a market in June through October, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Pennsylvania market and make no claim about Pennsylvania's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if South Carolina has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
South Carolina carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no South Carolina market and make no claim about South Carolina's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if South Dakota has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
South Dakota carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no South Dakota market and make no claim about South Dakota's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tennessee has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Tennessee carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Tennessee market and make no claim about Tennessee's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Texas has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Texas carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Texas market and make no claim about Texas's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Utah has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Utah carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Utah market and make no claim about Utah's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Virginia has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Virginia carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Virginia market and make no claim about Virginia's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Washington has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Washington carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Washington market and make no claim about Washington's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if West Virginia has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
West Virginia carries a market in June through October, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no West Virginia market and make no claim about West Virginia's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Wisconsin has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Wisconsin carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Wisconsin market and make no claim about Wisconsin's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Wyoming has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Wyoming carries a market in every month of the year, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Wyoming market and make no claim about Wyoming's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Recent US Drought Monitor data valid through August 25, 2026, show exceptional (D4) drought covering roughly 1.5–1.75% of the contiguous United States, concentrated in a handful of states.** Persistent high-pressure ridging and above-normal temperatures across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and portions of the Intermountain West have driven rapid degradation, expanding or intensifying D4 in Idaho (notably northeastern areas), Arkansas, and Mississippi while smaller pockets persist in Colorado and adjacent states. Monsoonal moisture brought localized relief and one-category improvements in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. The next USDM map, incorporating data through early September and released around September 3, will determine the official week-of-September-1 classifications used for market resolution. Traders should monitor short-term precipitation forecasts and any late-August model runs that could shift D3/D4 boundaries before the data cutoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alabama has D4 (Exceptional Drought) on 0.05% or more of its land area in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Alabama carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Alabama market and make no claim about Alabama's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
D4 area below 0.05% is treated as cartographic noise at state borders and resolves "No".
Alabama carries a market in May through November, so this market exists for the week valid September 1, 2026. Weeks outside that window have no Alabama market and make no claim about Alabama's drought.
Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.
Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.
The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volume
$22,244End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:00 AM ETResolution Source
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspxResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent US Drought Monitor data valid through August 25, 2026, show exceptional (D4) drought covering roughly 1.5–1.75% of the contiguous United States, concentrated in a handful of states.** Persistent high-pressure ridging and above-normal temperatures across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and portions of the Intermountain West have driven rapid degradation, expanding or intensifying D4 in Idaho (notably northeastern areas), Arkansas, and Mississippi while smaller pockets persist in Colorado and adjacent states. Monsoonal moisture brought localized relief and one-category improvements in southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. The next USDM map, incorporating data through early September and released around September 3, will determine the official week-of-September-1 classifications used for market resolution. Traders should monitor short-term precipitation forecasts and any late-August model runs that could shift D3/D4 boundaries before the data cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions