Traders assign a 97% implied probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2026, reflecting consistent congressional action to raise or suspend the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion. The limit was increased to $41.1 trillion in July 2025, with projections indicating it will next be reached in late winter to mid-summer 2027, followed by a six-to-nine-month buffer of cash reserves and extraordinary measures. Both parties have historically prioritized avoiding the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and global financial instability that would accompany a missed Treasury payment. The dollar’s reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market, and repeated last-minute agreements continue to underpin this consensus. Even at these levels, outcomes could shift due to extended congressional deadlock, an unexpected fiscal crisis, or failure to enact necessary appropriations within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
3% chance
$18,028 Vol.
$18,028 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3% chance
$18,028 Vol.
$18,028 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% implied probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2026, reflecting consistent congressional action to raise or suspend the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion. The limit was increased to $41.1 trillion in July 2025, with projections indicating it will next be reached in late winter to mid-summer 2027, followed by a six-to-nine-month buffer of cash reserves and extraordinary measures. Both parties have historically prioritized avoiding the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and global financial instability that would accompany a missed Treasury payment. The dollar’s reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market, and repeated last-minute agreements continue to underpin this consensus. Even at these levels, outcomes could shift due to extended congressional deadlock, an unexpected fiscal crisis, or failure to enact necessary appropriations within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$18,028End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97% implied probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2026, reflecting consistent congressional action to raise or suspend the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion. The limit was increased to $41.1 trillion in July 2025, with projections indicating it will next be reached in late winter to mid-summer 2027, followed by a six-to-nine-month buffer of cash reserves and extraordinary measures. Both parties have historically prioritized avoiding the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and global financial instability that would accompany a missed Treasury payment. The dollar’s reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market, and repeated last-minute agreements continue to underpin this consensus. Even at these levels, outcomes could shift due to extended congressional deadlock, an unexpected fiscal crisis, or failure to enact necessary appropriations within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$18,028End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97% implied probability that the United States will not default on its debt by the end of 2026, reflecting consistent congressional action to raise or suspend the statutory debt limit ahead of exhaustion. The limit was increased to $41.1 trillion in July 2025, with projections indicating it will next be reached in late winter to mid-summer 2027, followed by a six-to-nine-month buffer of cash reserves and extraordinary measures. Both parties have historically prioritized avoiding the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and global financial instability that would accompany a missed Treasury payment. The dollar’s reserve-currency status, deep Treasury market, and repeated last-minute agreements continue to underpin this consensus. Even at these levels, outcomes could shift due to extended congressional deadlock, an unexpected fiscal crisis, or failure to enact necessary appropriations within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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