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Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
Geopolitics·Syria

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$747,985 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$747,985 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Venezuela

Venezuela

$355,637 Vol.

11%

icon for Indonesia

Indonesia

$17,332 Vol.

10%

icon for Lebanon

Lebanon

$113,504 Vol.

8%

icon for Tunisia

Tunisia

$12,363 Vol.

7%

icon for Kuwait

Kuwait

$16,286 Vol.

7%

icon for Syria

Syria

$20,930 Vol.

6%

icon for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

$61,861 Vol.

6%

icon for Qatar

Qatar

$36,093 Vol.

5%

icon for North Korea

North Korea

$20,130 Vol.

5%

icon for Pakistan

Pakistan

$9,339 Vol.

5%

icon for Cuba

Cuba

$9,387 Vol.

4%

icon for Iran

Iran

$16,242 Vol.

4%

icon for Bangladesh

Bangladesh

$12,976 Vol.

4%

icon for Malaysia

Malaysia

$12,668 Vol.

4%

icon for Afghanistan

Afghanistan

$20,641 Vol.

4%

icon for Iraq

Iraq

$12,595 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent political realignments in Latin America have driven warmer Israel ties, with Colombia's new administration restoring full diplomatic relations, relocating its embassy to Jerusalem, and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights in August 2026. Venezuela restored consular ties the same month after a 17-year break, while Chile and Honduras reinstated ambassadors. A June 2026 regional conference advanced the Isaac Accords and encouraged further embassy moves to Jerusalem. Broader factors include sustained Abraham Accords momentum after Kazakhstan's 2025 accession, ongoing Israeli-Syrian security talks post-Assad, and stalled Saudi normalization amid U.S. diplomacy. These developments shape trader focus on potential new or restored recognitions among the roughly two dozen non-recognizing states by year-end, though entrenched positions in several Arab and Muslim-majority countries limit near-term shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$747,985
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent political realignments in Latin America have driven warmer Israel ties, with Colombia's new administration restoring full diplomatic relations, relocating its embassy to Jerusalem, and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights in August 2026. Venezuela restored consular ties the same month after a 17-year break, while Chile and Honduras reinstated ambassadors. A June 2026 regional conference advanced the Isaac Accords and encouraged further embassy moves to Jerusalem. Broader factors include sustained Abraham Accords momentum after Kazakhstan's 2025 accession, ongoing Israeli-Syrian security talks post-Assad, and stalled Saudi normalization amid U.S. diplomacy. These developments shape trader focus on potential new or restored recognitions among the roughly two dozen non-recognizing states by year-end, though entrenched positions in several Arab and Muslim-majority countries limit near-term shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$747,985
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Jun 1, 2026, 1:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 16 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Venezuela" at 11%, followed by "Indonesia" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 11¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" has generated $748K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 1, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?," browse the 16 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" is "Venezuela" at 11%, meaning the market assigns a 11% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Indonesia" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.